Ukraine. Barley exports on hold

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maksym Kharchenko

Grain & Freight Market Analyst

WINTER BARLEY SOWING. As of September 16, only 3% of the expected winter barley area was sown. Most regions are still suffering from the summer drought, which delays the sowing. The western regions of Ukraine and Odesa received long-awaited rainfall in mid-September, so we expect planting to progress in these regions. The best sowing time for winter wheat and barley ends in mid-October, so there is still time for growers. In total, 639 K ha of winter barley will be planted, up 12% from last year.

EXPORT RATES. Exports in the first 2 months of 2024/25 season (July-August) were promising and well ahead of previous seasons by size.

Top barley buyers, July-August, K mt 

• China – 631;
• Libya – 110;
• Spain – 103.

However, as China’s buying appetite waned in September, the export rate dropped significantly. As was announced in late August, China decided to support local producers and stopped grain imports. It is not clear how long this ban will last. In December, Australian barley will be on the market, which will be very difficult competition for Ukraine.

PRICE TRENDS. Barley prices were little changed in August-September as farmers held back sales in anticipation of better prices. As of mid-September, demand for barley was low, with feed wheat and corn markets much more active, which could push barley prices higher. However, now the main upward driver might be demand from China. Ukraine’s export potential is estimated at about 1.4 M mt of barley in MY 2024/25. The practice of the last few years shows that barley prices and sales margins can also increase in the spring. Therefore, it is likely that farmers will hold some barley stocks for sale in the second half of the season (January-May).

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Tags: Ukraine, China, export, barley, prices, Libia