UkrAgroConsult changing its 2022/23 grain crop estimates

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

On February 15, the State Statistics Service (SSS) published preliminary data on winter crop plantings in Ukraine, which turned out to be far below the Ag Ministry’s forecast of late November. As a reminder, the planted area of wheat was then estimated at 6.66 Ml ha with those of barley and rye pegged at 1.02 Ml ha and 161 Th ha, respectively.

The greatest decline in percentage terms happened in the planted area of winter rye, while quantitatively winter wheat plantings were reduced the most (down 369 Th ha), UkrAgroConsult reports.

When comparing the preliminary and final data on fall planting, it can be seen that the wheat and barley areas were underestimated every year.

Taking into account that the final planted area may be revised upwardly, our new estimate of wheat plantings was slightly increased.

We leave our estimates of barley and corn plantings unchanged. The reasons are that the winter barley area projection may still be raised, while corn plantings hardly will be expanded amid rapidly increased production costs (fuels, fertilizers, plant protection products). Oilseeds and pulses (soybeans, peas) are more likely to be preferred.

The current weather conditions may contribute to a good harvest (unless new weather risks emerge in spring), therefore we raise our yield estimates.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers  of ‘BLACK SEA GRAIN’ Weekly Report by UkrAgroConsult.

Request a free a sample report and apply for subscription here.

Be confident with your business and trade strategy based on professional analysis and forecasts of the Black Sea agri market.

UkrAgroConsult

Tags: Ukraine, grain, barley, wheat, rye