UGA lowers 2024 crop forecast in Ukraine to 71.8 mln tons of grains and oilseeds
The Ukrainian Grain Association has again lowered its estimate of the potential crop in 2024 compared to the previous forecast – by 2.8 million tonnes to 71.8 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds. Remember that the 2023 harvest was 82.8 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds.
The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions of the last 5 years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in the spring and summer will lead to adjustments. A further downgrade to the new season crop forecast has been caused by the hot and dry weather in Ukraine in July this year, which has harmed the potential yield of late grains and oilseeds.
Under these conditions, exports in the new 2024/2025 season will be 41 million tonnes, 2.5 million tonnes less than previously forecast. Last season, which ended on 30 June, exports of grains and oilseeds totalled 57.5 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds. Compared to the previous season, the drop in exports could be more than 16 million tonnes.
The UGA estimates the 2024 wheat crop at 19.8 million tonnes (22 million tonnes in 2023). Potential wheat exports in 2024/2025 MY could reach around 13 million tonnes, taking into account that carryover stocks at the beginning of the season were close to 1 million tonnes. It should also be noted that wheat consumption in Ukraine has fallen due to the war and the significant emigration of people abroad. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy, wheat consumption fell from 8 million tonnes to just over 6 million tonnes.
According to the UGA, the 2024 barley harvest could reach 4.95 million tonnes, up 350 thousand tonnes from the previous estimate (5.8 million tonnes in 2023), while potential exports in 2024/2025 MY is expected to be around 2 million tonnes (last season barley exports totalled almost 2.5 million tonnes).
Expectations for the new season’s corn crop are deteriorating due to the prolonged dry spell in several regions. Therefore, the UGA estimates the crop at 23.4 million tonnes, 2.1 million tonnes lower than the previous estimate and 6.2 million tonnes lower than last year’s crop of 29.6 million tonnes. At the same time, potential exports could be around 18.5 million tonnes (last season’s exports totalled 29.3 million tonnes).
The 2024 sunflower crop is expected to reach 12.8 million tonnes, which is 0.9 million tonnes lower than the previous estimate (in 2023 – 14.2 million tonnes). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thousand tonnes, while sunflower oil domestic crushing could reach 12.5 million tonnes. Last season, 13.5 million tonnes were processed.
In 2024, the rapeseed crop is expected to reach 4.3 million tonnes (in 2023 – 4.5 million tonnes), while exports in 2024/2025 MY could reach 3.4 million tonnes (in the current season – 3.7 million tonnes).
As for soybeans, even though farmers have increased the planted area, unfavourable weather conditions will not allow for a larger crop due to lower yields. As a result, the 2024 soybean crop is expected to reach 4.8 million tonnes, down 0.7 million tonnes from the previous estimate (4.9 million tonnes in 2023).
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