Turkey’s wheat stocks to fall sharply

With a government ban on wheat imports set to run through October and dry weather impacting domestic output, Turkey’s wheat ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year are projected to decline by 61% from the previous year, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Wheat production is seen declining by 11% to 18.75 million tonnes, while imports are forecast to fall by 30% to 6.5 million tonnes, the report said.

“The forecast assumes that the import ban will be lifted in October and flour exporters will then be able to source the raw materials they need from the international market,” the FAS said.

On June 6, the Turkish Agriculture Ministry announced that it would halt wheat imports from June 21 through mid-October to protect Turkey’s farmers from price decreases and other negative impacts during this year’s harvest. The ministry noted that the ban could be extended beyond October if conditions warranted.

The measures would be implemented to “prevent our producers from being affected by price decreases due to supply density during the harvest period, to meet the raw material supply required for our exports from domestic production, and to ensure market stability in favor of producers,” the ministry said.

Turkey is by far the world’s largest wheat flour exporter, with shipments of 5.8 million tonnes (wheat equivalent) expected in 2024-25. The FAS noted that “flour exporters are being negatively impacted by the import ban and are worried that they will not be able to offer competitive prices and will lose some of their markets should the ban extend beyond October.”

The report said the export of flour made with domestically produced wheat, which had been prohibited since September 2018, has been liberalized by the Turkish government, as have exports of milling wheat, durum wheat, and barley.

The downward revision in Turkish wheat production stems mainly from adverse weather conditions.

“The dryness caused yield and quality losses in several critical production areas, and especially in Central Antolia and the Aegean region,” the FAS said. “Expected increases in production in southeastern Turkey and the Thrace region will not be sufficient to compensate for losses elsewhere.”

Tags: Turkey, wheat, drought, restrictions, crop forecast