Turkey cuts wheat imports by almost half

According to the USDA’s FAS forecasts published on February 4, in the 2024/25 season, wheat, barley and corn production in Turkey will be reduced compared to the previous year due to drier than usual weather conditions during the growing season.

Despite this decline, Turkey still has large stocks of wheat and barley left over from last year. The Turkish government is taking various steps to reduce these surpluses. In addition, to conserve water in an increasingly dry climate, the government recently introduced a program that encourages farmers to grow less water-intensive crops in regions where water is scarce.

Wheat imports

In the first half of the 2024/25 season (June-November), wheat imports decreased by more than 40% year-on-year to 1.9 mln tons. This decline is directly related to the Turkish government’s decision to suspend the domestic processing regime (IPR) for wheat from late June to mid-October.

Despite such a slow start, wheat imports are expected to pick up in the second half of the year after IPR was partially resumed in October, and are projected to reach 5.5 mln tonnes. In line with past trends, the majority of Turkey’s wheat imports are expected to be Russian wheat.

In mid-October, after the IPR suspension ended, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) announced that mills must purchase 85% of their wheat needs from the TMO, which holds large stocks of domestic wheat. Mills have the right to purchase 15% of their remaining wheat needs under the IPR. In January 2025, these ratios were revised to 75% (domestic) and 25% (imported). According to market sources, these percentages are likely to remain in effect until the end of the harvest in May. Currently, all wheat imports are subject to the IPR through a 130% most favored nation (MFN) tariff.

Meanwhile, flour exporters hope to be able to purchase at least 50% of their wheat needs under the IPR. According to sources, this change will increase the competitiveness of their exports, as imported wheat is much cheaper than domestic wheat. Currently, imports of Russian wheat are about USD 70 per ton cheaper than Turkish wheat, which is sold at about USD 310 per ton.

Barley imports

The forecast of barley imports in 2024/25 season is lowered to 130 thsd tonnes, due to lower demand for imports due to large carry-over stocks of barley at the beginning of the year. In the first half of the season (June-November), barley imports decreased by 7% compared to the previous year and amounted to 77 thsd tonnes. The main suppliers were Russia (40,000 tons) and Ukraine (36,000 tons).

Corn imports

The forecast of corn imports in 2024/25 season remains at 2.4 million tons, provided that the government does not renew the tariff quota (TRQ) for corn. In October 2024, in order to stabilize corn prices, the Turkish government introduced a TRQ of 1.0 mln tonnes with a 5% duty, which was valid from the beginning of October to the end of 2024. The out-of-quota duty was 130%. After the TRQ was terminated, the duty on all corn imports returned to the MFN rate of 130%. In the first three months of the marketing year (September-November), corn imports totaled about 1.0 mln tons. The leading suppliers were Ukraine (735,000 tons) and Russia (185,000 tons).

Tags: corn, Turkey, wheat, imports