Turkey Barley Market 2025/26: Import Dependency, Rising Prices and Strategic Competition

UkrAgroConsult

The 2025/26 season marks a structural turning point for Turkey’s barley market. Weather-driven crop losses have sharply reduced domestic production to around 6.0 M mt, transforming Turkey from a balanced market into a net importer with growing exposure to external suppliers. Market dynamics increasingly revolve around securing volumes rather than optimizing price.

Supply–demand balances reflected in aggregated production and consumption data underline the rigidity of feed demand. With feed use stabilizing near 6.2–6.5 M mt, imports become unavoidable. Import requirements of roughly 1.2 M mt are already shaping trade flows and intensifying competition among suppliers from the EU, russia and Ukraine.

Procurement activity reveals a steady upward adjustment in price levels. Recent tenders and domestic sales point to barley values in the range of USD 260–269/mt on import basis, while local market prices approached TRY 14,500/mt. These figures indicate that price pressure is driven by structural dependency rather than short-term shortages.

Trade flow dynamics suggest a clear reshuffling of supplier roles. EU shipments dominated early in the season, russia strengthened its position through competitive offers and flexible logistics, while Ukraine’s participation remained limited as exporters focused on higher-margin corn and wheat.

Monthly shipment patterns and comparative supplier tables show that Turkey is competing for barley with other major importers. Demand from Saudi Arabia and Iran, alongside shifts in China’s sourcing strategy, indirectly tightens availability and raises procurement risks until the next harvest.

Key themes of the article

• Structural import dependency of Turkey in 2025/26
• Rigid feed demand as the main driver of imports
• Upward price pressure driven by market fundamentals
• EU, russian and Ukrainian competition for Turkish demand
• Role of state tenders and strategic stocks
• Impact of global buyer competition on availability
• Risks shaping the market until the 2026 harvest

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Tags: Turkey, barley, prices, imports