Trump’s sanctions are shaking up the edible oil market: what does this mean for Ukrainian sunseed?

The expected increase in prices for Ukrainian sunflower seeds has been influenced by new US trade restrictions. Donald Trump, the US president, announced his intention to impose additional tariffs on goods from Europe, Mexico, Canada and China. The decision caused an immediate reaction on the stock exchanges and changed the balance on the vegetable oil market, in particular soybean and sunflower.

This is reported by analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the VAR.

“It would seem that everything was going well: seasonal factors supported the upward trend. However, the news about possible tariffs on European goods turned the situation around. The price of soybean oil has fallen sharply over the past few days, and this is also affecting the sunflower oil market. We have already lost about $5-10 per ton of sunflower oil over the past week. The seasonal model still signals the possibility of an increase in sunflower prices in March-April, but Trump’s trade wars will most likely restrain this growth. There were expectations that the market would reach the level of 29,000-29,500 UAH/t. Now this probability has decreased. Now the price of sunflower will be about 28,000 UAH/t, possibly with short-term increases,” – believe the PUSK.

The sunflower market is entering a period of instability. “If soybean oil continues to fall, then sunflower oil may lose another $10 per ton in the coming days. This will also lead to sunflower, which may see a further decrease of 200-300 UAH/t this week,” analysts add.

Despite the negative factors, Ukrainian sunseed may also benefit from the trade war.

“American soybean oil may actually disappear from the European market or reduce its presence to a minimum. This means that Europe will look for an alternative – perhaps in Argentine soybean oil, perhaps in palm oil. But part of the demand will also switch to sunflower oil,” the PUSK note.

Tags: Ukraine, sunseed