Truce did not calm the markets: Strait of Hormuz is almost blocked, crude oil prices are rising

Crude oil prices rose on heightened supply risks from Saudi Arabia and a near-total shutdown of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a temporary truce between the United States and Iran, markets remain tense over the threat of prolonged disruptions and the possibility of further price increases.

Global crude oil prices rose on Friday amid fresh supply risks. Brent futures rose 0.6% to $96.50 a barrel, while U.S. WTI added 0.5% to $98.36.

Despite this, the market remains in the red for the week, with both benchmarks down about 11%, their worst performance since June 2025.

Analysts warn that if the current restrictions on transportation through the Strait of Hormuz are maintained, prices could rise sharply – up to $ 190 per barrel. At the same time, a partial resumption of transit can restrain the rise in prices, although quotes will still remain significantly higher than pre-war levels.

The main factor in the growth was concerns about disruptions in crude oil supplies from Saudi Arabia after attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure. As a result of the strikes, production capacity was reduced by about 600 thousand barrels per day, and the throughput of a key oil pipeline – by another 700 thousand.

Additional pressure on the market is created by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz – one of the most important crude oil transportation routes in the world. Shipping there has practically stopped and is less than 10% of its usual volumes, despite the announced truce between the United States and Iran.

Although the parties, mediated by Pakistan, agreed to a temporary ceasefire, the fighting has not stopped completely. This increases uncertainty in the market and fuels doubts about the stability of the agreements.

In addition, Iran seeks to introduce a fee for the passage of ships through the strait, which is met with resistance from Western countries and international organizations. Against this background, markets are closely monitoring any signals about the resumption of navigation and the outcome of peace talks.

According to experts, the conflict has already led to damage to dozens of energy infrastructure facilities in the region and the shutdown of a significant part of crude oil refining capacity, which continues to threaten global supplies.

Tags: prices