Transition from GASC to Future of Egypt throws wheat market into chaos

A rapid and poorly executed transition to the military-linked Future of Egypt as the country’s new state grain buyer has plunged the Egyptian wheat market into disorder and shaken confidence among global suppliers. In December 2024, the government unexpectedly transferred responsibility for wheat procurement from the long-established General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) to the newly appointed agency, without public explanation or proper preparation.

As a result, Egypt — one of the world’s largest wheat importers — saw its imports fall by more than 27% in the first half of 2025, totaling 5.2 million tonnes. The government’s share of purchases dropped even more sharply, down 57% to 1.5 million tonnes. Analysts say the decline reflects the complete lack of experience within Future of Egypt, unresolved financial arrangements between the two agencies, and poor communication with international exporters.

Experts note that global grain trading is a conservative industry built on long-standing relationships. The sudden entry of unfamiliar officials without a developed reputation has made leading wheat exporters hesitant to sell to Egypt. Additional complications arose when Future of Egypt scrapped GASC’s transparent tender system and shifted to bilateral negotiations, making procurement more irregular, less predictable, and less transparent.

The situation worsened as payments were delayed, and the new buyer sought to renegotiate previously agreed-upon contracts after global prices for wheat and vegetable oils declined. Traders saw these moves as de facto defaults — something that did not occur under GASC’s management. Although respected former GASC official Yousria Yusry Mohamed was recently appointed to supervise international purchases, experts stress that systemic issues cannot be solved by one person alone without building a capable team and stabilizing financial flows.

Egypt is also grappling with broader structural challenges, including the need to reduce the cost of its wheat import program and increase domestic production. According to USDA estimates, wheat output in the 2025-26 marketing year will reach 9.2 million tonnes, only slightly higher than the previous season. The government is trying to boost productivity by promoting early-maturing, high-yield varieties, supporting raised-bed cultivation, and modernizing post-harvest infrastructure.

Wheat consumption in the country of over 119 million people is projected at 20.3 million tonnes in 2025-26, driven by higher food, seed, and industrial demand. This means Egypt will continue to depend heavily on imports, and any disruption in procurement could further strain a national budget already burdened by extensive bread subsidies.

Analysts say the simplest — though politically sensitive — solution would be to return responsibility for wheat imports to GASC. The agency built decades of trust with global suppliers and maintained a transparent, centralized tender system that reliably secured affordable wheat for Egypt’s vast subsidized bread program.

Tags: Egypt, wheat