Traders raise rapeseed prices in Ukraine on condition of fast delivery

The Verkhovna Rada continues to discuss the “soybean-rapeseed” amendments to the draft law, which provides for amendments to the Tax Code to prevent industrial pollution, after the Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy recommended introducing duties on soybean and rapeseed exports, and the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Agrarian and Land Policy did not support this initiative on July 7.

Deputies report that the decision will be voted on in July or August, and the likelihood of its adoption is high, since 200 deputies supported the initiative during the first vote in June, so finding an additional 26 votes will not be difficult (so call your deputies!).

Exporters who chartered the first vessels for July raised their purchase prices for rapeseed by $5-10/t to UAH 25,500-25,800/t or $535-545/t with delivery to ports, but on condition of delivery by July 15-20, in order to have time to export before the introduction of duties.

As of July 4, 71.6 thousand tons of rapeseed were threshed from 46 thousand hectares in Ukraine with a yield of 1.56 tons/hectare, and farmers report very low yields in the south.

Many winter rapeseed areas have been destroyed by frost and drought, so the rapeseed harvest forecast remains the main factor that will affect prices (we estimate the harvest at 2.4-2.5 million tons compared to 3.7 million tons in 2024). Farmers are in no hurry to contract rapeseed, expecting further price increases, although duties and price reductions in the EU may postpone price increases to the second half of the season.

Rapeseed exports from Ukraine in the MY 2024/25 decreased by 15% compared to the previous season to 3.14 million tons, of which 1 million tons were purchased by Germany, 0.9 million tons by Belgium, and 0.33 million tons by the United Kingdom.

Rapeseed imports to the EU in the MY 2024/25 increased by 29% compared to the previous season to 7.33 million tons, but were inferior to the record figure of the MY 2022/23 – 7.47 million tons.

It should be noted that in the MY 2024/25, Australia increased its rapeseed supplies to the EU from 1.87 million tons (33%) to 3.48 million tons (47.5%) compared to the previous season, Canada – from 0.1 million tons (1.8%) to 1.05 million tons (14.3%), and Ukraine reduced them from 3.16 million tons (55.6%) to 2.4 million tons (32.9%).

August rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange fell by 4.7% to €464/t or $545/t in a month amid significant old crop stocks and forecasts of a good new crop in the EU, which will provide processors with their own raw materials and shift the need for active imports to the second half of the season, when Canadian and Australian canola will appear on the market.

Permission for the use of GM soybeans in the EU will significantly increase the use of GM rapeseed, so Ukrainian rapeseed will face strong competition if the price is high.

Prices for rapeseed with delivery to the factory in Germany in August-September are 460-465 €/t, so prices in Ukrainian ports at the level of 460-465 €/t are very attractive.

The drop in rapeseed oil prices in the EU by €20-30/t will continue to put pressure on rapeseed prices on the physical market in the coming month.

July canola futures fell 3.5% yesterday to 686 CAD/t or $502/t (-3.5% month-on-month), and November futures fell 3.4% to 696 CAD/t amid lower oil prices and falling domestic demand from processors.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), from August 1, 2024 to June 19, 2025, the country increased canola exports by 51% to 9.11 million tons. Australia exported 4.81 million tons of canola in the MY 2024/25 compared to 4.56 million tons in October-May MY 2023/24.