This Year’s Wheat Harvest in Syria to Cover Only 19% of Consumption

Syria’s wheat market is in a critical state due to climatic, economic, and security challenges threatening the country’s food security. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), wheat production in 2025 is projected to fall below the average of previous years. Drought, delayed rainfall in November 2024, ongoing conflicts, and population displacement have reduced planted areas and are expected to result in a significantly lower harvest. Approximately 13 million Syrians, over half the population, face food insecurity, with 3.1 million experiencing severe food insecurity.

Farmers describe this year’s wheat season as “catastrophic.” Estimates suggest that 40% to 75% of crops have been damaged due to drought and insufficient irrigation. In the Al-Ghab region, 7,782 hectares of wheat fields were lost out of 52,541 planted. Many farmers have been forced to sell their crops as livestock fodder due to poor plant growth. Rising costs for fuel, fertilizers, and seeds, combined with restricted field access due to conflicts, are pushing farmers to switch to more profitable crops like anise or coriander, further reducing wheat production.

According to Syria’s Ministry of Agriculture, the planned wheat cultivation area was 1.4 million hectares, but only 76% (1.1 million hectares) was achieved. Expected production is just 772,838 tons, covering only 19% of the country’s 4-million-ton demand, signaling an 80% deficit that risks a humanitarian crisis. To address the shortfall, Syria plans to import wheat or flour, with Iraq resuming shipments of 220,000 tons and Turkey agreeing to supply flour. Russia has suspended wheat exports to Syria following a change in government, while Ukraine has expressed readiness to step in as a supplier.

Climate change is exacerbating the crisis. Syria’s average annual rainfall is 300–350 mm, but 2025 projections estimate only 210 mm. Inconsistent rainfall and drought, particularly from October 2024 to January 2025, have devastated rain-fed crops. Experts propose short-term measures like subsidizing seeds, fertilizers, and fuel, alongside long-term strategies such as developing drought-resistant wheat varieties, upgrading irrigation systems, and reforming agricultural policies. Without these interventions, Syria, once a wheat exporter, faces a deepening food crisis.

Economic instability and rising bread prices further compound the issue. After abolishing the “smart card” subsidy system, the price of a 1,200-gram bread bundle has surged to 4,000 Syrian pounds, a heavy burden for a population with an average salary of 540,000 pounds. The FAO reports that a minimum food basket for a family of five costs 2.5 million pounds, with the minimum wage covering just 18% of food needs. Urgent investment in agriculture and farmer support is critical to avert an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe in Syria.

Tags: wheat, Syria, crop forecast