The USDA lowered its forecast for global consumption of vegetable oils and raised its estimate of their production

USDA experts in the December report, as in November, slightly raised the forecast of global production of vegetable oils in 2021/22 mg and lowered the estimate of their consumption.

So, the forecast global production of vegetable oils increased by 0.18 million tons to 214.97 million tons, which is 8.52 million tons higher than in 2020/21 MG, but prices will remain at a high level due to increased demand for renewable energy sources and increased consumption of oils for biofuels.

Due to high prices for vegetable oils, their forecast is global consumption it was reduced by another 0.64 million tons (after it was reduced by 0.47 million tons in October and 0.46 million tons in November) to 211.15 million tons, which is 5.41 million tons higher than in 2020/21 MG.

Forecast global imports vegetable oils decreased by 0.29 million tons to 86.52 million tons (81.38 million tons in 2020/21 MG), in particular for India – by 0.35 million tons to 14.894 million tons (13.8 million tons in 2020/21 MG), which against the background of an increase in its own production of rapeseed oil will reduce imports of soybean oil by 0.325 million tons to 3.4 million tons.

For China, forecasts for the production and import of vegetable oils remained almost unchanged compared to November estimates, while the forecast for soybean production was reduced from 19 to 16.4 million tons.

Rating global final reserves vegetable oils in my 2021/22 decreased by 0.03 million tons to 23.98 million tons (24.79 million tons in my 2020/21) due to a decrease in palm oil reserves, which is partially offset by an increase in sunflower oil reserves against the background of increased production.

Prices for palm, soybean and sunflower oils remain almost at the same levels with minimal premiums for soybean and sunflower oil.

According to surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia, Malaysia exported 544 thousand tons of palm oil during December 1-10, which almost corresponds to the level of the same period in November and indicates a slowdown in exports due to high prices.

January soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 7.4% to грудня 1,190/ton during December 3-10 amid the White House Administration’s decision to reduce support for biofuel producers.

Prices for Black Sea sunflower oil decreased to F 1,350-т 1,390/ton FOB, but remain at a fairly high level compared to soybean oil. However, in the near future, the pressure on prices will be increased by an increase in the forecast of sunflower harvest in Ukraine and Russia by 0.5 million tons and the forecast of sunflower oil production by 0.258 million tons to 22.054 million tons, in particular for Ukraine to 7.289 million tons (5.913 million tons in 2020/21 mg) and Russia to 5.844 million tons (5.121 million tons in 2020/21 MG).

GrainTrade

Tags: rapeseed oil, Ukraine, Russia, China, sunflower oil, soybean oil, prices, Black Sea region, USDA Report, Malaysia, edible oils