The main drivers of the grain and oilseed markets of Ukraine are named
Prices on global markets are expected to rise, and with the increase in prices for agricultural products, farmers will be able to pay more for logistics.
This forecast was made by analysts of UkrAgroConsult during the Black Sea Grain. Kyiv 2024 conference.
“The price of cargo transportation by road is likely to rise. Moreover, the prices for rail transportation will be stable only until January 1, 2025, and then, according to the regulations, the prices will be revised by Ukrzaliznytsia starting from the new year. Therefore, it is necessary to closely monitor the decisions that will be made, as this will affect the choice of transportation mode,” says Sergey Feofilov, CEO of UkrAgroConsult.
According to him, the main factor that needs to be monitored 2-3 months before harvesting and until more reliable data is available for decision-making is the weather.
This is the No. 1 factor, the second significant factor is the gray market. Unfortunately, this factor is becoming increasingly important and affects production, supply of grains and oilseeds, and logistics. It is this factor that brings a significant amount of uncertainty. At the end of the season, we see figures on exports and consumption within the market, for example, that the wheat harvest was higher than the official figures, and these points need to be taken into account.
He adds that another important driver for agriculture is investment, which is currently concentrated on the most profitable and marginal crops and in the processing industry.
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