The global balance of sunflower continues to deteriorate

In the February report, USDA experts lowered their sunflower production forecasts for Argentina and the Russian Federation. But analysts believe that in the next balance, the forecasts for these countries will be reduced again, and the overall balance for sunflower for 2022/23 MY will worsen.

Compared with the January estimates, the forecast of world production of sunflower in 2022/23 MY was reduced by 0.31 million t to 50.77 million t (57.31 million t in 2021/22 MY and 49.2 million t in 2020/21 MY) , in particular for Argentina – by 0.2 to 4.4 (4.05) million tons and the Russian Federation – by 0.5 to 16 (15.6) million tons, although according to Rosstat data, 15.3 million were collected at the end of December and 1 million ha remained unthreshed. For Ukraine, the harvest forecast was increased by 0.4 to 10.4 (17.5) million tons.

The sunflower export forecast in 2022/23 was reduced for Argentina by 50 thousand tons to 200 thousand tons, but increased for Ukraine by 0.2 million tons to a record 2.65 million tons. Due to active exports from Ukraine, the import forecast for the EU was increased by 50 thousand tons to 2.9 million tons.

Ukraine continues to restore energy supply to industrial enterprises, which improves the prospects of sunflower processing, therefore the estimate of domestic processing has been increased by 0.5 million tons to 10 million tons.

The forecast of world final stocks of sunflower was reduced by 0.88 million tons to 4.85 million tons (8 million tons in 2021/22 FY and 2.6 million tons in 2020/21 MY), in particular for Ukraine – by 0.3 to 1 .85 (4.69) million tons and the Russian Federation – by 0.5 to 0.74 (0.96) million tons.

The purchase prices of sunflower in Ukraine during the week fell by 500-1000 UAH/t to 17000-17500 UAH/t or 465-480 $/t with delivery to the plant due to the delay in the actions of ships to the ports of the Black Sea and the slowdown in the export of meal and oil. But for a month, sunflower prices rose by 3-5%.

The acceleration of sunflower exports in early January led processors to raise their purchase prices, so resolving the port call issue will immediately increase demand for sunflower, even with low sunflower oil prices due to a significant supply of cheap palm oil.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, sunflower oil, sunflower, EU, USDA Report, supply and demand balance, Argentina