The forecast for world production of soybean oil in 2022/23 has been raised again

Against the backdrop of the increase in soybean production by individual countries, Oil World (Germany) experts in September increased the forecast of global production of soybean oil in 2022/23 MR by 1.5 million tons to 61.63 million tons, in particular for China – by 0.4 million tons to 16.8 million tons, Argentina – by 0.3 million tons to 7.9 million tons, India – by 0.2 million tons to 1.5 million tons, the USA – by 0.2 million tons to 12 million tons, Brazil – by 0.1 million tons to 10.2 million tons.

According to the forecast, the world export of soybean oil in 2022/23 MR will grow to 13.2 million tons, which will exceed the figure of 2021/22 MR by only 0.05 million tons. At the same time, the export of soybean oil from Brazil, which was actively increasing in the 2021/22 FY, is unlikely to exceed 2.45 million tons in the current season, especially if the biofuel mandate is increased from 10% to 13%. While Argentina will increase oil exports by 0.2 million tons to 5.3 million tons.

Global stocks of soybean oil in FY 2022/23 are expected to grow compared to the current season from 6.17 to 6.25 million tons.

The increase in the production of soybean oil compensates for the decrease in the supply of sunflower oil from Ukraine due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation. At the same time, China and India are actively replenishing their stocks with cheap palm oil.

In the period September 1-20, compared to the same period in August, Malaysia increased the export of palm oil by 31-39%, surveyors report.

Indonesian palm oil producers are reducing their huge inventories thanks to discounts and aggressive sales to India, where demand is growing ahead of the Diwali festival in October.

November palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia remained low at 3,737 ringgit/t or $830/t, while Chicago soybean oil traded at $1,450/t and Black Sea sunflower oil at $1,100-$1,200/t. t FOB.

The low sunflower harvest in the EU and Ukraine will in the near future lead to an increase in the prices of sunflower oil, the quality of which is better and the price is lower than soybean oil.

Tags: prices, India, Malaysia, palm oil, Ukraine, USA, China, Argentina, sunflower oil, soybean oil, Indonesia, Brazil, EU