The EU and Australian Barley will offset the drop in barley harvest in Ukraine and the Black Sea region, 2023/24

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

In 2022, according to UkrAgroConsult estimates, the barley harvest may reach 5.5 M mt. For the 2023 crop, the winter barley area has significantly decreased (to 535,000 ha) due to it being the first autumn sowing campaign since the start of the war. By now, the favorable time for spring barley sowing has already ended, and the barley area has not reached the Ministry of Agriculture plans. As of May 25th, only 763 K ha have been sown.

Depending on harvest and competition, Ukraine ranked 2nd to 4th among the major barley exporters until 2022. However, after the war in the southern regions, Ukraine has dropped to the 6th position.

In the 2022/23 season (July 2022-May 24, 2023) total barley exports from Ukraine are 2,62 M mt (5,68 M mt – last season of 2023/22).

Due to blocked seaports in the 2022/23 season, there were no typical peak shipments at the beginning of the season. As a result, monthly exports from January to May 2023 exceed the average multi-year figures.

In the 2021/22 season, China accounted for 45% of Ukrainian barley exports. In 2022/23, China share decreased to 12%. Harvest decline and complicated export logistics through the grain corridor have hindered exporters from gathering large batches for shipment to distant destinations. Meanwhile, the shares of Turkey (from 19% to 25%) and EU countries (from 4% to 49%) have increased in the 11 months of 2022/23 (July 2022-May 2023).

The European Commission expects the 2023 barley harvest in the EU to grow to 52.2 M mt (+1.3% from 2022), and exports – to 10 M mt (+11.2%) due to higher 2022/23 carry-over stocks (13% of total consumption). The carry-over growth is due to imports increase from 1.1 M mt in 2021/22 to 1.9 M mt in 2022/23. If barley exports remain at the usual level of 10 M mt next season, the EU ending stocks may increase to 8.2 M mt (16% of total consumption).

According to the USDA, the EU may again become the world’s No. 1 barley exporter in 2023/24, as the Australian barley harvest may be significantly reduced due to the expected negative El Niño impact.

Amid growing geopolitical risks, China decided to diversify its grain supplies. China added Brazil to the list of corn suppliers and agreed with Australia to revise the anti-dumping duties on Australian barley imports established in 2020.

Most likely, Australia to return to the list of major barley suppliers to China. This might push Argentina and France due to geographical proximity of Australia, which will allow barley from there to compete at lower freight rates.

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Tags: EU, France, Black Sea region, supply and demand balance, Argentina, Australia, crop forecast, Ukraine, China, Turkey, barley, Brazil