The Asian factor: Will Black Sea freight rates climb?
UkrAgroConsult
Article author:
2025/26 Season Kick-off
April frosts delayed spring planting pushing back harvest and muted the usual spike in shipping demand. Today, freight markets are balanced roughly across most vessel classes—only coastal “mini-bulkers” see tight tonnage.
Panamax/Supramax Under Pressure
These workhorses carry near 44 % of global grain yet now face weak demand from Southeast Asia and China. Black Sea to South China rates declined to USD 34–36/mt from USD 52–54/mt y/y. CPT Odesa freight remains in the low USD 30/mt range.
Emerging Asian Appetite
China was largely absent in 2024/25 but booked more than 5 Panamax of Ukrainian barley (about 300 K mt) in 2025/26. Ukrainian pea exports gained market access in May, but shipments are too small by now and unlikely to grow sharply to move freight.
Bulker Supply & Downside
Meanwhile, Black Sea bulker availability rises as fertilizer, scrap and coal flows fall on the back of “green” energy. Low insurance premiums are capping rate swings in a tight USD 30–40/mt band.
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