Tariff uncertainty lowers oil and soybean oil prices in the US, putting pressure on sunseed and soybean prices in Ukraine

The Trump administration has received a decision from the US Court of Appeals temporarily suspending (for 14 days) the decision of the International Trade Court, which blocked the imposition of the tariffs announced by Trump, to give the Department of Justice time to appeal.

On Thursday night, Trump welcomed the appeals court’s decision in a social media post, calling the initial decision “wrong and political!” He said seeking congressional approval for the tariffs would hinder the trade agenda and “completely destroy the power of the presidency.”

Despite the temporary delay, the White House expects the appeals court to ultimately uphold the original decision and block Trump’s tariff policy.

Chaos and uncertainty over tariffs continue to weigh on global trade, pushing down oil and commodity prices.

July Brent crude futures fell 1.4% yesterday to $64.1/barrel (+5% month-on-month) amid uncertainty over tariffs and reports that trade talks between the US and China have reached an impasse.

July soybean oil futures in Chicago fell by 2.2% in two days to $1,066/t and continue to fall (currently trading at $1,035/t), losing 8% in two weeks under pressure from reduced export demand for the oil and the possible abolition of duties on Canadian rapeseed oil, which is used to produce biofuels in the US.

Soybean oil prices in Brazil fell by $20/t to $995-1,000/t FOB in a week amid growing domestic processing volumes and a record soybean harvest.

In Ukraine, export prices for sunflower oil decreased by $10/t to $1,090-1,110/t for delivery to Black Sea ports in a week, and prices for Russian oil for delivery in May fell by $5/t to $1,100-1,105/t FOB.

During the week, prices for sunseed with 50% oil content in Ukraine decreased by 300-500 UAH/t to 25,500-26,500 UAH/t ($540-560/t excluding VAT) delivered to the factory. Some processors have already purchased the necessary volumes of sunseed and stopped purchases, while others are reducing trading activity in anticipation of a further drop in oil prices due to low demand from importers.

Export demand prices for soybeans also decreased to the level of 17,900-18,000 UAH/t or $382-385/t with delivery to the port, which allowed processors to lower prices to the level of 17,000-17,500 UAH/t with delivery to the factory.

The record soybean harvest from Brazil and Argentina continues to fill the global market with soybeans and their processed products, so next month prices will remain under pressure from news about increased sunflower and soybean sowing areas in Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the USA.

Tags: soybean oil, prices, soybean, sunseed