Global vegetable oil production set to hit record highs in 2025/26

According to the latest estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global vegetable oil production will reach 234.5 million tonnes in 2025/26. This is 6.7 million tonnes more than in 2024/25, which would theoretically fully cover the expected demand of 228.9 million tonnes.

According to a study by the German Union for the Promotion of Oilseeds and Grains (UFOP), palm oil remains the most important vegetable oil on the world market in terms of production and consumption. Global palm oil production is estimated at a peak of 80.4 million tonnes. This corresponds to an increase of 2.2 million tonnes compared to 2024/25. Indonesia remains the largest producer with a production volume of 47.5 million tonnes, followed by Malaysia with a production volume of 19.2 million tonnes and Thailand with a production volume of just under 3.4 million tonnes.

Soybean oil production is expected to increase by 2.2 million tonnes to 70.8 million tonnes in the next marketing year, which could be a new record. Rapeseed oil production will reach 34.5 million tonnes in 2025/26, 617,000 tonnes more than in the current season. Sunflower oil production is expected to increase by around 1.8 million tonnes to 21.9 million tonnes.

In the context of the repeated critical debate on the acceptability of biofuels from waste oils, the Union has once again expressed its criticism of the double counting of so-called advanced biofuels from certain waste categories. This designation is wrong, since the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) stipulates that double counting is only possible if the raw materials are processed using innovative technologies, the association notes.

The Union states that if 5% to 10% of global vegetable oil production can be collected as waste oil, it can be assumed that the global quantity of waste oil would be approximately 11.7 to 23.4 million tonnes.

However, as the Union notes, this globally available volume should be appropriately classified when redesigning national and European fuel market support policies, as additional demand from the shipping and aviation sectors will compete for this potential in the future, not only in the EU but also globally.

Earlier it was reported that China’s waste cooking oil exports in 2024 reached a record high of 2.951 million tonnes, up 43.49% from 2023.

Tags: rapeseed oil, crop forecast, sunflower oil, soybean oil, palm oil