Sunflower seeds harvest forecasts: Drought hits Ukraine, while Russia and Kazakhstan expect production to increase

Weather conditions significantly affect the sunseed harvest in the Black Sea region in the MY 2025/26. Due to dry weather in Ukraine, analysts are revising estimates downward, while Russia  and Kazakhstan are preparing for increased production.

Ukraine: Drought threat lowers harvest expectations

According to scientists at the Institute of Agriculture of the NAAS, soil moisture in regions such as the Dnipropetrovsk region is already critically low — less than 160 mm, and a yield of less than 1 t/ha is considered acceptable under such conditions.

A decrease in temperature and rain are expected in the next 5–7 days, but there will be significantly less rain in the south and east than in the center and west of Ukraine.

According to the USDA FAS , the sunflower seeds harvest in Ukraine in the MY 2025/26 is preliminarily estimated at 14 million tons (versus 13 million tons in 2024/25), but this is 3.3% less than the five-year average.
Sown areas have been reduced to 5.8 million hectares (from 6 million hectares last year), partly due to excessive rainfall in May, which prevented full sowing.

Russia: expansion of areas and favorable weather support production

Despite the heat in the southwest of the Russian Federation, weather conditions remain favorable in other regions. According to USDA estimates, the production forecast is maintained at 18 million tons (versus 16.9 million tons last year), which is 14% above the five-year average.

Sown areas are estimated at 10 million hectares , but according to operational data, they may be 11–11.5 million hectares (for comparison: 9.8 million hectares in 2024).
The yield allows us to predict a gross harvest of 18.5–19 million tons.

Kazakhstan: record areas and potential for growth

Favorable agrometeorological conditions in all major growing regions allow us to expect higher than average yields. According to the forecast of Kazhydromet, the yield will be higher than the multi-year norm.

The official USDA forecast for the MY 2025/26 is 1.7 million tons (versus 1.834 million tons last year), but this is 36% higher than the five-year average.
Local analysts estimate the potential at 2–2.2 million tons.

Tags: Ukraine, sunseed, crop forecast