Sunflower oil prices in Ukraine reach five-month high

UkrAgroConsult

Sunflower oil prices in Ukraine and Europe have surged amid forecasts of low yields in the country and limited production across the continent following a hot and dry summer that hindered crop development, Bloomberg reports.

In Ukraine, sunseed yields are expected to fall below the five-year average “mainly due to drought in the south, where most sunflower cultivation takes place,” according to a report by the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit. Similar challenges are being observed across Europe: France, the leading producer, expects output to drop 15% below the five-year average, according to the French Ministry of Agriculture.

Analytical firm Strategie Grains estimates that Europe may record its worst sunseed harvest in a decade, at around 8.3 million tons. “In the best case, it will be a poor harvest; in the worst case, disastrous,” said Vincent Braak, a crop analyst at the firm.

Sunflower oil prices at French ports are trading near their highest levels since November 2022, while Ukrainian prices are approaching a five-month high, Commodity3 data show. The price surge reflects concerns over the MY 2025/26, with Ukraine and the EU together accounting for about 40% of global sunflower production, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

Vegetable oil prices have already reached their highest level since July 2022, according to the FAO’s index of key food commodities, adding pressure to food inflation, which remains at a two-year high. Limited supplies of vegetable oils such as palm and rapeseed have also contributed to the price increase.

According to the World Bank, sunflower oil was the most expensive vegetable oil in August. Buyers are responding by making smaller, piecemeal purchases rather than stocking up for several months, said Kyle Holland, senior market reporter at Expana. “Normally we would have covered 50–60% of demand by now, but purchases to cover demand through December may be only around 30%,” he said. Some manufacturers are also beginning to reformulate products to reduce sunflower oil usage, though this remains limited.

Nevertheless, some relief may come as harvesting progresses and supplies increase. In Ukraine, a leading exporter of sunflower oil, harvest collection has been slow, but “as harvesting moves north and west, yields are improving,” consultancy UkrAgroConsult said. The firm expects total sunflower seeds production to rise more than 8% from last season thanks to expanded planting areas.

Harvesting is in full swing in Europe. Early yields and oil content remain low, Braak from Strategie Grains noted, though “there could be surprises from later crops.”

Tags: Ukraine, sunflower oil, EU, prices, France