Structural transformation of the global beef market

From 2000 to the present, global beef production has grown by only 22%, while global trade in this product has increased by 129%.

The global beef market is undergoing a structural transformation, with an increasing share of production destined for international trade.

Over the past two decades, global trade growth has significantly outpaced output growth, clearly indicating a situation where external demand drives business activity.

Meanwhile, China is once again positioning itself as a leading player in the market. Record imports at the start of the year and the rapid use of quotas set the stage for shortages in the second half of the year, which could lead to further price increases and new opportunities for exporting countries such as Argentina.

From 2000 to the present, global beef production has grown by only 22%, while global trade in this product has increased by 129%.

An increasing share of world production is directed to the international market.

In all beef-exporting countries, including Brazil, per capita beef consumption has declined over the past twenty years. World beef production is growing more slowly than global demand, and the needs of new importing countries are being met by surpluses held by a few countries with export stocks that can take advantage of favorable international market conditions.

In 2000, 11% of global beef production was destined for the international market; today this share has risen to 22% and is likely to continue to rise in the coming years. The development of globalization – now under threat – during the period 2000–2025 contributed to this significant increase in the global meat trade.

International demand is so strong that it can quickly turn countries with no history of participating in global trade into net exporters, as happened with Bolivia, which exported 150,000 tons (meat and bones equivalent) in 2025. (“Beef is a product for which demand is constantly increasing and production is decreasing.”) Another traditional importer, the European Union, now exports much more beef and live cattle than it imports.

In addition, since 2000, global beef production has increased by 22%, pork production by 44%, poultry production by 119%, and aquaculture production, including farmed fish, by 199%. Traditional wild fish production (from seas, rivers and oceans) has been stagnating for many years.

China hits record beef imports in first two months of year

In January-February, the Asian giant imported 628,000 tons, up 34% compared to the same period last year, valued at around US$3.8 billion (+45%).

This volume represents 23% of the total import quota set for the whole of 2026, which is 2.69 million tons.

Both Australia and Brazil imported significant amounts of meat into China in the first two months of the year, which they had stockpiled in warehouses, ports or on ships in anticipation of the release of the Chinese government’s “safeguard” policy. This resulted in Brazil using 34% of its allocated annual quota in just two months, and Australia also using 36% of its quota very early.

Argentina used only 20% of its quota in January-February, Uruguay 11% and New Zealand 9%, and will have quota available for the second half of the year.

At this rate, Australia and Brazil will exhaust their August or September quotas early, just as China ramps up purchases ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.

The market expects that in the second half of the year, after supply quotas to Australia and Brazil are exhausted, there will be serious shortages and import prices will rise again. Since the beginning of the year, prices paid by China have increased by 20-25%, and many importers are in a state of panic. The situation is aggravated by the reduction of the import quota, which, due to an error in calculations, is filled ahead of schedule.

In the first two months of the year, 59% of China’s beef imports came from Brazil, 16% from Argentina, 12% from Australia, 6% from Uruguay and 6% from New Zealand.

Tags: Brazil, Beef cattle, Argentina, China