Strong demand from the EU keeps Ukrainian rapeseed prices high
Lower than in 2023 rapeseed harvest in Ukraine and possible reduction of rapeseed production in 2025 are forcing traders to actively buy Ukrainian rapeseed, sometimes offering prices higher than those at which EU mills buy rapeseed from their farmers.
In the western and central regions of Ukraine, there was precipitation, which will improve the condition of rapeseed crops and allow for faster sowing.
As of September 9, Ukraine planted 534.7 thou hectares of winter rapeseed or 48% of the planned area, but early crops were severely affected by drought.
Export purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine during the week increased by 100-200 UAH/t to 22900-23200 UAH/t or 490-495 $/t with delivery to the ports of the black sea, so farmers have stepped up sales.
Demand prices for rapeseed with delivery to the plant in the Czech Republic or Germany remain at 465-475 €/t or 510-520 $/t, but road or rail deliveries in this direction are almost absent, as the cost of logistics is 60-70 $/t higher than the cost of delivering rapeseed to ports.
In MY 2024/25 (as of September 8), the EU increased imports of rapeseed by 46% to 939 thsd tonnes compared to the previous season, of which 505 thsd tonnes or 54% were supplied from Ukraine and 352 thsd tonnes or 37.5% from Australia.
The rate of export of canola from Australia in July decreased compared to the previous month by 13%, and in August (according to preliminary estimates) – by 20%. There are rumors that China will start buying Australian canola instead of Canadian, but there have been no shipments from Australia to China in the last 3 months.
Currently, Ukrainian rapeseed and Canadian canola (GMO rapeseed) are the most affordable in the EU, but processors are limited in selling GMO rapeseed meal, so they try to buy as much as possible from Ukraine.
China’s intentions to refuse canola from Canada do not scare Canadian farmers, as the country’s processing capacity is constantly increasing, and everyone is now interested in whether the high demand for biofuels in North America will continue after the decline in oil prices.
November canola futures on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange on Monday fell 3.2% to 570 CAD/t or $420/t (-2.8% for the month) following a 10% decline in oil prices during the week.
Decrease in the forecast of world production and stocks of rapeseed in the new USDA report will support the quotes.
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