Strategie Grains raises EU soft wheat crop forecast to 123.5 mln tons

Strategie Grains has increased its monthly forecast for this year’s soft wheat crop in the European Union by 1.7 million metric tons to 123.5 million tons, supported by favourable harvest prospects in Spain, the consultancy said on Thursday.

The increased projection is still lower than last year’s production, estimated by Strategie Grains at 126.1 million tons, after a fall in planting following heavy rain in parts of western Europe.

The consultancy cited Spain as the main factor in an upward revision to its outlook for the 2024 EU barley crop, which it increased by 0.5 million tons compared with April to 53.0 million tons.

That is nearly 12% above last year’s drought-hit EU barley crop of 47.4 million tons.

In addition to Spain, the raised forecasts for soft wheat and barley reflected improved conditions in Romania and Bulgaria and to a lesser extent in France and Germany, Strategie Grains said.

“However, the return of rainfall in mid-May in west EU countries is unlikely to generate any further upwards production revisions, and effectively confirms the expected year-on-year fall in soft wheat production,” the consultancy said.

France, the EU’s top grain producer, is widely expected to gather its smallest soft wheat crop in four years after torrential rain cut sowing by more than 7%.

The forecast drop in EU production this year was seen leading to lower EU soft wheat exports in 2024/25, though downward revisions to harvest forecasts in Russia following adverse weather could boost overseas demand for EU wheat, Strategie Grains said.

The consultancy trimmed its outlook for this year’s EU maize harvest to 63.3 million tons from 63.4 million in April, though that is still above last year’s output of 62.4 million.

Tags: EU, wheat, crop forecast