Strategie Grains predicts a recovery in the EU rapeseed and sunseed crops next year

European Union rapeseed and sunseed production should rebound sharply in 2025 after unfavorable weather conditions reduced this year’s crop, consultancy Strategie Grains said on Friday.

In its first forecasts for oilseed production next year, the company predicts an EU rapeseed crop of 18.7 million tons, up 12% from a four-year low of 16.7 million tons in 2024.

Sunseed production in 2025 is forecast at 10.5 million tons, 25% above the nine-year low of 8.4 million tons expected in 2024.

This year’s rapeseed crop has been affected by repeated heavy rains in Western Europe, while the sunflower crop has been hit by drought, heat waves and heavy rains in Southeastern Europe.

According to the Strategie Grains report, sowing conditions for the next rapeseed crop were “not ideal” due to too much or too little rainfall in the production belts, but were still better than a year ago.

Next year’s rapeseed crop is expected to be larger in Romania, France, Germany and the Baltic states, the agency said.

The consultancy did not provide further details on its outlook for rapeseed, but it had previously forecast a 4% increase in the area planted to rapeseed.

For sunflower seed, Strategie Grains also forecast an expansion in acreage as it believes farmers will be attracted by high prices due to this year’s poor harvest in Europe and the Black Sea region.

Next year, it expects sunflower acreage could reach the second highest ever recorded after 2022.

Strategie Grains’ estimate of this year’s EU sunseed crop was lower than the 8.8 million expected a month ago and the latest downgrade to the pre-harvest forecast.

Weather-induced supply is forecast to lead to a record low EU stocks-to-use ratio this season, despite weakening industrial demand linked to higher sunseed prices.

According to Strategie Grains, rapeseed stocks are also down this season, but price gains could be limited if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump imposes a proposed tariff on Canadian imports, which could depress Canadian rapeseed prices.

Tags: Romania, EU, France, sunseed, rapeseed, crop forecast