Strategie Grains has again lowered its forecasts for the harvest of grain crops in the EU

Experts of Strategie Grains against the background of difficult weather conditions again reduced forecasts of wheat, barley and maize production in the EU in MY 2023/24.

Thus, compared to previous estimates, production forecasts are reduced:

• soft wheat – by 2.5 million tons to 126.2 million tons (+1% to MY 2022/23),
• barley – by 0.8 million tons to 47.1 million tons (-8% of MY 2022/23),
• corn – by 0.4 million tons to 60.8 million tons (+17% of MY 2022/23 MY).

In Europe, wheat and barley harvesting is actively underway, with preliminary data showing “catastrophically” low yields in Spain and very low yields in southeastern Europe, which experts attribute to excessive spring rainfall, among other factors.

Spring barley has been affected by drought, especially in northern Europe, while the corn crop could be down unless there are heavy rains in July. Yield prospects are slightly better in France and central Europe.

At the same time, Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for EU soft wheat exports in MY 2023/24 from 31.4 to 30.1 million tons, and adjusted its MY 2022/23 export forecast from 31.8 to 30.5 million tons.

The prospects for exports are worsened by uncompetitive wheat prices in France and uncertainty about supplies to China, which may reduce imports of feed wheat amid deterioration in the quality of its own crop as a result of heavy rains.

Tags: crop forecast, EU