Strategie Grains cuts EU sunseed and rapeseed crop forecasts

Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for the current sunseed crop in the European Union, mainly due to poor weather in Eastern Europe, and also lowered its estimate for the rapeseed crop for the fifth consecutive month.

Forecasts for next season have improved, with the first estimates of planted acreage pointing to a 4% increase in canola acreage, while sunflower and soybean acreage will remain stable, according to Strategie Grains.

The consultancy expects the 2024 sunflower seed crop in the 27-country bloc to reach 8.9 million tons, down 400,000 tons from the forecast a month earlier and 9.8 million tons harvested in 2023.

“Catastrophic sunflower yields are confirmed as harvest progresses, with yields in Bulgaria and Romania expected to be the lowest in 15 years,” the consultancy said in its report.

“The situation in Hungary is also disappointing, with yields across the country expected to be down 5% compared to the five-year average. In France, delayed crop development will entail late harvesting and hence increased exposure to bad weather,” the company added.

EU crop monitoring service MARS also downgraded its sunflower crop forecast last week, but did not give a harvest estimate.

Strategie Grains said the EU rapeseed crop will be 16.7 million tons, down from the previous 16.9 million tons and more than 16.5% below last year’s level. The revision of forecasts mainly concerns Germany.

Further declines in production and increased demand have widened the expected EU rapeseed deficit, despite a sharp rise in projected imports from Canada due to attractive processing margins.

The consultancy forecasts further increases in EU sunseed and rapeseed prices due to the substantial deficits forming in the EU and world seed and vegetable oil balances.

According to Strategie Grains, soybean prices have upside potential despite the tight global balance sheet due to tensions caused by the new EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) coming into force on December 30, which bans imports of agricultural products such as soybeans and palm oil from deforested forests.

Prices are expected to remain firm and highly volatile until then, as the delayed implementation of the EUDR will partly ease EU balance sheets, the report said.

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Tags: Hungary, crop forecast, Bulgaria, Romania, EU, France, sunseed, rapeseed, Germany