Strategie Grains agency lowers EU oilseed harvest forecast, but rapeseed quotes continue to fall

Consulting agency Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for oilseed production in the EU in the MY 2025/26 from 32.5-33 million tons to 32 million tons, which will still significantly exceed last year’s 29.1 million tons, which became a 5-year low.

Thus, the forecast for rapeseed production was reduced from 19 to 18.6 million tons (16.85 million tons in the MY 2024/25), sunflower production from 10.5 to 10.4 (8.8) million tons, and soybean production from 3.1 to 3 million tons.

The agency notes that the reduction in forecasts for the EU, which may worsen the situation on the world market, is due to dry weather in some regions. However, oilseed production in the EU will still be 13% higher than last year.

According to the agency, active shipments to China ahead of China’s anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola and the negative impact of drought on crops in Canada led to a rise in prices in May.

According to the forecast of Oil World (Germany), in the MY 2025/26, global rapeseed and canola production will increase by 2.3 million tons compared to the previous season to 77.8 million tons, in particular in the EU – up to 19.4 million tons.

According to the USDA forecast, global rapeseed and canola production in the MY 2025/26 will increase by 4.45 million tons to 89.5 million tons, in particular in the EU – to 19.15 million tons.

August rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange have fallen by 2% to €478.5/t or $546/t over the past two weeks (+2% month-on-month) amid increased precipitation and improved weather in the EU.

Tags: EU, oilseeds, crop forecast