StoneX raises Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop forecast to record level

Global financial services company StoneX revised its forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop upward in January, estimating production at 177.6 million tonnes. This represents a 0.2% increase from the December report and a much stronger 5.2% rise compared with the previous season, despite irregular rainfall and periods of intense heat across key producing regions.

The main adjustment was made in Mato Grosso, where the production estimate was raised by 0.8% to 46.9 million tonnes. Even with this upward revision, the state is still expected to record a 7.1% decline from the previous cycle. Weather conditions, which were favorable in December, have since become more erratic, with uneven rainfall and rising temperatures posing increased risks.

Overall, StoneX maintains an optimistic outlook and continues to project record soybean output. However, late-cycle areas remain dependent on favorable weather through mid-March. Harvesting has already begun but is largely concentrated in irrigated regions, which are less exposed to water stress.

For corn, StoneX slightly reduced its estimate for the first (summer) crop by 0.5% to 26 million tonnes. The downgrade was driven by a 5.6% drop in expected yields in Santa Catarina due to irregular weather patterns. Even so, the state is still projected to harvest around 2.27 million tonnes, remaining an important supplier for domestic use, particularly for animal feed.

The second corn crop (safrinha) for the 2025/26 season is forecast at 105.8 million tonnes, down 5.2% from the previous cycle. Total corn production from all crops is expected to reach 134.3 million tonnes, broadly unchanged from earlier estimates. On the supply-and-demand side, slightly higher soybean production combined with stable consumption lifted ending stocks for 2025/26 to 4.6 million tonnes, while lower corn output resulted in tighter carryover stocks.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, crop forecast