Stock prices for wheat accelerated the decline amid improving crop conditions in the US, which increases pressure on prices in Ukraine

Wheat quotations on world markets remain under pressure from low demand from importers and increased supplies from Argentina and Australia, which are harvesting.

Yesterday, amid improving crop conditions in the United States and forecasts of precipitation in the United States, Ukraine and South-Eastern Russia, the quotes fell another 1-2.3%, having decreased since the beginning of the week by 3-5.8%.

Yesterday, the December futures declined:

• by 2.1% to 198.8 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-5.8% since Monday),
• by 1% to 198.7 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4.3%),
• by 1.2% to 209.8 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-4.2%).
• by 2.3% to 209.5 €/t or 220.9 $/t December wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (-3%).

According to the Crop Progress from NASS USDA, as of November 10 in the United States winter wheat planted 91% of the area (93% on average for 5 years), and the number of crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 3% to 44% (47% last year). Precipitation forecast for the next 7-10 days in the Midwest and Plains of the United States will continue to improve the condition of crops.

the Ministry of industry and trade of Jordan on November 12 held a tender for the purchase of 120 thousand tons of milling wheat of arbitrary origin, where it purchased 60 thousand tons of wheat for shipment on February 1-15, 2025 at a price of 269 $/t C&F, which is $ 2/t lower than the price of the previous tender on November 6, where it was contracted 60 thousand tons of wheat for shipment on February 1-15 at a price of 271 $/t C&F Aqaba.

In 2024/25 MY, the EU reduced wheat imports compared to the previous season by 3% to 3.24 mln tonnes, 71% or 2.29 mln tonnes of which were supplied from Ukraine.

Purchase prices in the black sea ports of Ukraine during the week remained at the level of 210-214 $/t or 9800-10100 UAH/t for food and 203-205 $/t or 9500-9600 UAH/t for feed wheat. After rising prices in the previous week, the number of offers from farmers increased, which allowed processors to slightly lower prices.

The pace of wheat exports from Ukraine is declining. In November 1-13, Ukraine shipped 460 thsd tonnes (594 thsd tonnes in the same period last year), and in total, in 2024/25 MY the country exported 8.2 mln tonnes of wheat, up 58% compared to the previous season (5.22 mln tonnes), and half of the export volume agreed by the Memorandum.

Rusagrotrans experts expect that in 2025/26 MY the area under wheat will decrease by 900 thsd ha to 16.3 mln ha, and after wintering it may be reduced to 15.4 mln ha, which will be the lowest since MY 2018/19. At the same time, the harvest will amount to 84.5 mln tons, compared to 82 mln tons in the current season.

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Tags: prices, wheat, Ukraine