StatCan raised crop forecasts for wheat, canola and soybeans, but lowered corn and barley

In a new report, Statistics Canada (StatCan) experts raised their forecasts for wheat, canola and soybeans, but lowered their estimates for corn and barley production compared to 2023/24 MY.

The increase in forecasts is due to improved yields in Western Canada due to favorable weather, but heat and moisture deficit in some areas of the prairies reduced the yield potential. Thus, in Alberta and Manitoba, the harvest will exceed last year’s, while in Saskatchewan it will decrease due to drought.

According to the forecast of StatCan, the wheat harvest in Canada in 2024/25 MY will increase by 4.3% to 34.4 mln tonnes compared to the previous season (USDA estimated the harvest at 35 mln tonnes in August), as the yield increase by 5.9% to 48.5 bushels/acre will compensate the decrease in the planted areas by 1.6% to 26 mln acres. At the same time, spring wheat production will decrease by 0.7% to 25.4 million tons, while durum wheat production will increase by 47% to 6 million tons, as planted areas will increase by 5.3% to 6.2 million acres and yields will increase by 39.8% to 35.8 bushels/acre.

Production of canola will increase by 1.6% to 19.5 million tons (USDA estimates 20 million tons), as yields will increase by 1.8% to 39.4 bushels/acre, although the area to be harvested will decrease by 0.4% to 21.8 million acres. In Saskatchewan (the main producer of canola), production will increase by 2.9% to 10.6 million tons due to a 5.4% increase in yields to 39 bushels/acre, although the area under planting will decrease by 2.3% to 12 million acres. In Alberta, the canola crop will grow by 2.4% to 5.7 million tons, and the yield will increase by 2% to 39.9 bushels/acre, although the planted area will remain at the level of last year at 6.3 million acres. In Manitoba, the harvest will decrease by 3.8% to 3 million tons due to a 9% decrease in yield to 40.3 bushels/acre, although the area to be harvested will increase by 5.7% to 3.3 million acres.

It is expected that soybean production in the country will grow by 2.4% to 7.1 million tons due to an increase in planted area by 2% to 5.7 million acres and yield by 0.4% to 46.1 bushels/acre. In Ontario, the harvest will grow by 6.9% to 4.3 million tons on the back of a 7.6% increase in planted areas to 3.1 million acres, while in Manitoba, production will decrease by 14.1% to 1.3 million tons due to a decrease in area by 11.4% to 1.4 million acres.

The corn crop will decrease by 1.2% to 15.2 million tons (USDA estimates 14.5 million tons), due to a 5.2% decrease in planted area to 3.6 million acres, which partially offsets a 4.1% increase in yield to 168.5 bushels/acre. In Ontario (the largest corn producer), production will decrease by 3% to 9.7 million tons due to a 4.7% decrease in harvested area to 2.1 million acres, although yields will increase by 1.8% to 180.1 bushels/acre.

Barley production in the country will decrease by 16.1% to 7.5 mln tonnes compared to 2023/24 MY, including the planted area – by 14.3% to 5.7 mln acres, and the yield – by 2.1% to 59.9 bushels/acre.

At the same time, oat production will grow by 10.1% to 2.9 million tons due to an increase in planted area by 14.6% to 2.3 million acres, which offsets the decrease in yield by 3.8% to 80.7 bushels/acre.

Tags: corn, barley, wheat, rapeseed, crop forecast, oats