StatCan experts lowered the harvest forecast for canola and corn, but increased wheat, soybeans and barley

On December 5, Statistics Canada (StatCan) released estimates of the harvest of major crops. The report is based on a survey of 27,200 farmers, while the previous reports for August and September were based on models using satellite imagery. Compared to September’s estimates, wheat harvest forecasts have been raised, while canola, soybeans, corn and barley have been lowered.

It is expected that in 2024/25 MY the wheat harvest in Canada will increase by 6.1% to 34.96 mln tonnes compared to the previous season (USDA estimated it at 34.4 mln tonnes in September), which is in line with analysts’ estimates. The area under durum wheat increased by 8% to 6.3 million acres, yield by 32.8% to 34 bushels/acre, and total production by 43.6% to 5.9 million tons. Spring wheat acreage decreased by 2.5% to 18.7 million acres, but due to a 4.9% increase in yield to 51.3 bushels/acre, production increased by 2.2% to 26.1 million tons.

The forecast of canola production was lowered compared to September estimates from 18.98 to 17.8 mln tonnes, which is lower than the average estimate of analysts (18.51 mln tonnes) and 7% less than the 19.19 mln tonnes harvested in 2023/24 MY. Dry and hot weather in July and August in some regions of Western Canada reduced the yield by 7% to 36 bushels/acre, although the area to be harvested decreased by only 0.1% to 21.9 million acres.

In Saskatchewan (the main canola producing region), yields decreased by 3% to 35.9 bushels/acre, and harvested area decreased by 2.2% to 12 million acres, so production decreased by 5.1% to 9.8 million tons. In Alberta, production decreased by 8.5% to 5.1 million tons due to a 9% decline in yields to 35.6 bushels/acre, although the area increased by 0.6% to 6.3 million acres. In Manitoba, the area increased by 6.2% to 3.3 million acres, but the decline in yields due to difficult weather conditions at the beginning of the growing season by 16.3% to 37.1 bushels/acre led to a decrease in production by 11.1% to 2.8 million tons.

StatCan experts increased their harvest forecasts for major crops compared to September estimates:

• corn – from 15.17 to 15.35 mln tonnes, which is 0.5% less than last year’s 15.42 mln tonnes
• barley – from 7.6 to 8.14 million tons, which is 8.5% less than last year’s 8.91 million tons;
• soybeans – from 7.2 to 7.57 million tons, which is 8.4% higher than last year’s 6.98 million tons;
• oats – from 3.02 to 3.36 million tons, which is 27.1% higher than last year’s 2.64 million tons.

At the same time, the harvest forecasts for the following crops have been lowered:

• peas – from 3.16 to 3 million tons, which is 14.9% higher than last year’s 2.61 million tons
• lentils – from 2.59 to 2.43 million tons, which is 35% higher than last year’s 1.8 million tons.

Tags: oats, pea, barley, soybean, Canada, wheat, rapeseed, lentil