Stability of the US Flour Milling Industry Amid Global Volatility

Despite weak consumer confidence, declining grocery sales, and poor financial performance of many food companies, the US flour milling industry has shown remarkable stability in 2024 and early 2025. According to the US Department of Agriculture, flour production has increased for five consecutive quarters, with per capita flour consumption slightly rising in 2024. Financial reports from three major milling companies indicate sustained high profits.

However, caution is warranted as the industry’s stability remains fragile. Production capacity is gradually increasing, but per capita flour consumption, at 128.2 pounds (58.15 kg) in 2023 and 128.9 pounds (58.47 kg) in 2024, hovers near a 40-year low. Analysis of production and consumption trends suggests that excessive capacity expansion could pose risks to the industry.

In 2024, flour production grew by 1.2% compared to the previous year, but much of the per capita consumption increase was driven by a 12% rise in imports of flour, semolina, pasta, bulgur, and couscous (2.273 million cwts). Flour exports rose 23% (870,000 cwts), yet domestic consumption of US-milled flour increased by only 0.15 pounds per capita, indicating limited benefits for the domestic milling industry.

A positive factor is the industry’s resilience amid soft demand and global trade disruptions. Flour exports and imports account for just 2% and 4% of total US flour supply, making the sector less vulnerable to international trade restrictions. Additionally, 2025 marks the 10th anniversary of the USDA’s effective collection and publication of flour production data.

To maintain stability, the flour milling industry needs to control the expansion of production capacity and stimulate the growth of domestic consumption. The current stability of the industry is a valuable asset that needs careful management to ensure long-term prosperity. Growing demand for grain products and restrictions on imports could be key factors in strengthening the position of American flour mills.

Tags: USA, flour