Speculative growth of soybean prices continues in Ukraine, and Brazil has started harvesting a record harvest

Against the background of active soybean exports, processors in Ukraine are forced to raise purchase prices in order to purchase the required volumes, however, prices in export markets have stopped rising and have gone down amid reduced demand from importers who are expecting deliveries of the new crop from Brazil.

During the week, purchase prices for soybeans with GMOs increased by 300-500 UAH/t to 16,800-17,300 UAH/t ($460-475/t), and for soybeans without GMOs – by 500-1,000 UAH/t to 17,000-18,000 UAH /t ($465-493/t) with delivery to the factory against the background of reduced offers from producers who hope for price growth.

At the same time, European buyers, who have sufficient soybean stocks, reduced the purchase prices for GMO soybeans to $500-520/t DAP Poland and Romania, which corresponds to the price of $380-400/t FCA – farm in Ukraine, while for non-GMO soybeans prices remain at $560-570/t DAP Italy, which is equivalent to $390-410/t FCA – farm.

During the week of January 16-22, the EU reduced soybean imports by 48% to 101.5 thousand tons, which indicates a drop in demand from processors.

Demand prices for GMO soybeans with delivery to Black Sea and Danube ports fell to $425-450/t during the week, and for non-GMO soybeans to $455-480/t.

March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange last week lost a speculative rally since early January due to drought in Argentina and fell 3.5% to $546.7/t after heavy rains in Argentina.

According to the agency Conab, as of January 21, Brazil has almost finished sowing soybeans and started harvesting them. 2% of the planned area has already been threshed, compared to 6% on this date last year. In particular, in the main producer state of Mato Grosso, soybeans were harvested on 7% of the area compared to 16% last year.

Recent rains have eased soil moisture deficits in the southern states of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul and improved crop conditions and crop prospects, so Brazil’s soybean production forecast remains at 152.5-153 million tonnes (129.5 million tonnes in the previous season).