Speculative growth in rapeseed prices continues, despite an increase in production forecasts in Australia

Speculative growth in rapeseed prices on European exchanges continues, caused by a shortage of physical supplies. Against the background of significant volumes sold on the stock exchange, quotations yesterday rose by 2.6%, almost recovering the previous week’s decline.

the February futures for rapeseed on the Paris MATIF yesterday rose by 2.5% to 527,25 €/t or 554 $/t, rising in price for 4 sessions by 7% after the previous fall by 10%. While the quotes did not react to the increase in forecasts of the canola crop in Australia.

ABARES Agency raised its forecast for Australian canola production in 2024/25 MY by 0.1 to 5.6 million tons, which is 8% higher than the harvest in 2023/24 MY and 10% higher than the 10-year average.

the Futures for Canadian canola remain under pressure from low prices for soybeans and soybean oil in the United States, but gradually growing after the quotations for rapeseed in the EU.

January futures for canola on the Winnipeg stock exchange for 4 sessions increased by 3.9% to 587 CAD/t or 417 $/t, which is 10% lower than the previous month.

The pace of canola exports from Canada is slowing down. Currently, it reached 3.7 mln tonnes, which is 90% higher than the previous season, although in the first months of the season the exports were three times higher than last year.

In 2024//25 MY, the EU increased the imports of rapeseed by 8% to 2.4 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, 70.6% of which came from Ukraine.

In Ukraine, the purchase price of rapeseed in the ports of the black sea last week fell from 26000 to 24000 UAH/t, but this week rose to 25000 UAH/t or 530 $/t, as traders are trying to buy the available market balances.

In 2024/25 MG, Ukraine exported 2.63 million tons of rapeseed from the projected 3 million tons, in particular in November – 330 thousand tons. Farmers should accelerate the sale of residues at high prices, as in the second half of the season prices may fall on the forecasts of a good harvest next season.

According to the new estimates of the International Grains Council (IGC), in 2025/26 MY the global rapeseed acreage will increase by 1.4% to a record 44.1 mln ha compared to the current season.

Tags: Australia, prices, rapeseed