Soybeans in CBOT fell after USDA reported a larger US harvest

Soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell sharply on Monday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated farm yields higher than previously reported and lowered its forecast for domestic soybean exports in the current crop year, traders reported.

According to the USDA, U.S. soybean production last year reached 4.262 billion bushels, up from the December estimate of 4.253 billion bushels.

The USDA kept its average yield unchanged at 53 bushels per acre. Analysts had expected production to decline to 4.229 billion bushels, with an average yield of 52.7 bushels per acre.

The negative news comes amid President Donald Trump’s trade war with China, which has reduced demand from China, the world’s largest importer, which is increasingly turning to South America for oilseed supplies.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture also raised its soybean crop and export forecasts for Brazil.

Mar soybean futures on the Central Bank of America (CBOT) closed down 13.5 cents at $10.49 per bushel. Earlier in the session, the most active contract was ZS1!, which fell to $10.43-1/2 per bushel—the lowest since January 2.

Mar soybean meal on the Central Bank of America (CBOT) fell $5.40 to close at $298.30 per short ton, while March soybean oil on the Central Bank of America (CBOT) rose 0.58 cents to close at 50.27 cents per pound.

This data stream came as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its annual report on U.S. crop production, quarterly grain stocks, U.S. winter wheat plantings, and monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

According to agribusiness consulting firm AgRural, as of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had harvested 0.6% of the 2025/26 soybean crop, up from 0.3% a year earlier.

China’s Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) raised its corn and soybean production forecasts while leaving import estimates for both crops unchanged for the 2025/26 crop year, according to its January update released Monday.

Prior to these reports, Chicago grain and soybean futures rose on news of additional U.S. soybean sales to China and a weaker U.S. dollar, making American grains and oilseeds cheaper in export markets.

China’s Sinograin will auction 1.1 million metric tons of imported soybeans on January 13. This will be the first sale this year and the fourth since last month, as the state-owned stockpile builder prepares to make room for incoming shipments from the United States.

Tags: prices, soybean, USA