Soybean quotes in Chicago continue to fall under pressure from fundamental factors

January soybean futures in Chicago fell another 2.1% to $378.5/t (-9.2% per month) over the past week and are trading at last year’s level, completely losing the speculative growth caused by expectations of increased soybean sales from the US to China.

The pressure on quotes is being exacerbated by fundamental factors, including:

1. Very favorable weather conditions for soybean crops in Brazil (with abundant precipitation) are forcing analysts to increase forecasts for the soybean harvest in Brazil in the MY 2025/26 to 180 million tons and above, which significantly exceeds the USDA forecast of 175 million tons and the previous season’s harvest of 171.5 million tons. Recall that active soybean harvesting in Brazil will begin at the end of January.

2. A new law in the state of Mato Grosso will eliminate tax breaks for participants in the forest protection program from January 1, so if international traders withdraw from the agreement, it will dramatically increase the supply of soy (without ISCC) and allow Amazonian farmers to increase their planting area. In 2006, the American companies ADM, Bunge, Cargill, China’s Cofco and Brazil’s Amaggi signed an agreement to protect the Amazon forests, which included a moratorium on growing soy in fields cleared of forests.

3. Low rates of soybean sales from the US to China, which as of December 18 are estimated at 6.5 million tons compared to Trump’s promised 12 million tons by the end of the year. The forecast for soybean exports from the US in the MY 2025/26 has been reduced to 44.5 million tons compared to 51.2 million tons last season.

Additionally, oilseed prices are being pressured by the decline in global oil prices, which may continue into the first quarter of 2026.

In Ukraine, export purchase prices for GM soybeans delivered to Black Sea ports remain at $415-420/t or UAH 18,000-18,400/t, as traders need to ship export shipments, and supplies to ports are limited due to constant shelling.

But processors, amid falling prices for meal and limited exports of processed products, have already reduced their purchase prices for GMO soybeans to UAH 17,000-17,800/t delivered to the plant, and falling prices for sunflower and rapeseed will increase pressure on soybean prices in the near future.

Tags: prices, soybean