Soybean quotes continue speculative growth amid dry conditions in the US and a new forecast for the soybean crop in Argentina

Soybeans jumped 2.9-4.2% yesterday on the Chicago Stock Exchange due to dry conditions in the central US Midwest and a new estimate for the soybean crop in Argentina, which is almost 5 million tonnes less than the USDA’s June estimate.

Soybean futures for July rose 2.9% to $524.8 a tonne yesterday, up 5% on the week, and November futures rose 4.2% to $474.8 a tonne (+8.6 %), indicating speculative demand for a new crop that may be affected by drought.

Quotations for the old soybean crop were supported by data from the NOPA processing association, according to which 4.84 million tons of soybeans were processed in the United States in May, which exceeded the average estimate of traders and became a new record for May, as well as an increase in export sales of soybeans by 478 thousand tons. tons during the week.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut its forecast for Argentina’s 2022/23 soybean crop to 20.5 million tonnes, well below the USDA’s June estimate of 25 million tonnes, which will significantly reduce this season’s supply and lower inventories.

Analysts of the ANEC agency increased the forecast of soybean exports from Brazil in June by 1.7 million tons compared to previous indicators – to 14.76 million tons (14.49 million tons in May), which is significantly higher than the 9.95 million tons in June 2022 . The forecast for shipments of soybean meal was also slightly increased – by 200,000 tons, to 2.45 million tons in June (2.27 million tons in May, 2.16 million tons in June 2022). It is worth noting that Brazil cannot compensate for the decrease in the supply of meal and oil from Argentina, but only the supply of soybeans.

Tags: prices, soybean, Argentina, crop forecast