Soybean quotations on world markets fell to 4-year low

Favorable weather in South America and the reduction of soybean processing in the United States led to the fall of soybean futures in Chicago during the week by 3.8% to 4-year low of 349,7 $/t (-4.8% for the month, -35% for the year). According to the Association NOPA, the volume of soybean processing in the United States in November decreased by 11% compared to October and amounted to 5,287 million tons, while traders predicted it higher (5.35 million tons). the High rate of soybean exports from the United States is not yet support prices, as the market expects a reduction in soybean supplies to China in the second half of the season due to the possible aggravation of trade relations after the coming of Trump to power.

Soybean exports from the United States decreased by 3.5% compared to the previous week to 1,676 million tons, of which 1.03 million tons purchased by China. In general, in MY 2024/25, the U.S. exported 25.23 mln tonnes of soybeans, up 19.1% compared to last year.

According to Conab, as of December 15, Brazil planted 97% of the planned areas with soybeans (last year – 95%), and due to heavy precipitation in October-December, the crops are in good condition. In Argentina, soybeans have been planted on 55% of the area, which corresponds to the average seeding rate. AgRural, as well as other agencies, forecasts a record harvest of beans in MY 2024/25, according to various estimates, Brazil will harvest an average of 171.5 mln tonnes of soybeans, compared to 154 mln tonnes in the previous season.

In MY 2024/25, the EU increased soybean imports by 16% compared to the same period of the previous season to 6.27 mln tonnes, including 2.7 mln tonnes from the US, 2.5 mln tonnes from Brazil and 600 thsd tonnes from Ukraine. Imports of soybean meal increased by 32% to 9.08 mln tonnes, including 4.4 mln tonnes from Brazil, 3.55 mln tonnes from Argentina and 200 thsd tonnes from Ukraine.

Increase in imports of soybeans and soybean meal to the EU reduces the demand for Ukrainian soybean meal and oil from European buyers. Under the pressure of low world soybean prices in the Black Sea ports of Ukraine, export demand prices for GMO soybeans remain low at 365-375 USD/t. Export demand prices for non-GMO soybeans are $410-420/t.

Tags: prices, soybean