Soybean purchase prices in Ukraine in the second half of the season will remain under pressure from low world prices

Thanks to a large harvest and high export prices at the beginning of the season, Ukraine achieved record soybean exports and processing volumes in the MY 2024/25. However, the US trade wars and a large soybean harvest in Brazil are depressing global oilseed prices.

According to the AgRural agency, as of March 6, 2025, soybeans in Brazil have been harvested on 61% of the area (+11% per week, 55% last year), despite prolonged rainfall in the largest producing state, Mato Grosso.

 During the week, May soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1.7% to $371.4/t (-4.2% month-on-month) under pressure from uncertainty over soybean demand in the US and a 12.5% drop in soybean oil prices to $910/t for the month.

In the Black Sea ports of Ukraine, export prices for GMO soybeans will remain at $380–385/t or UAH 17,900–18,100/t for the week. However, it is worth noting that large international companies have not been buying soybeans for more than a month, and only small traders are purchasing the volumes needed for export.

Export demand prices for non-GMO soybeans have decreased to $415-420/t or UAH 19,500-19,600/t with delivery to ports or the western border.

Amidst difficulties with the sale of soybean meal, processors have reduced purchase prices for GMO soybeans by UAH 300–500/t to UAH 17,000–17,300/t with delivery to the plant, while prices for non-GMO soybeans remain stable at UAH 19,000–19,200/t amid limited supply.

In February, Ukraine increased soybean exports by 71% compared to January to a record 382 thousand tons for this month. In total, in the first half of the MY 2024/25, soybean exports amounted to 2.35 million tons, which exceeded last year’s pace by 6% and surpassed the previous record of September-February 2019/20 MY (2.3 million tons). Of this volume, 1 million tons or 44% (31% in 2023/24 MY) were purchased by EU countries (the increase in this direction was 47%), in particular, the Netherlands – 304 thousand tons, Germany – 144 thousand tons, Romania – 122 thousand tons. The leader among importers was Turkey, which purchased 530 thousand tons of soybeans, reducing purchases by 11%. Egypt reduced purchases by half, as it increased soybean supplies from the USA.

Soybean supplies to Pakistan amounted to 275 thousand tons, but in recent months exports in this direction have decreased, and in February amounted to only 3 thousand tons, and in January – 0. At the end of 2024, Pakistan allowed the import of GMO soybeans and began importing them from the USA.

The shortage of sunflower supplies has allowed plants to increase soybean processing volumes to record levels, which increases its liquidity, even against the background of a high harvest. In early March, soybean stocks were equal to the indicators of the previous two seasons. This will help maintain soybean sowing areas at a high level in 2025.