Soybean production forecast in Brazil cut amid irregular rainfall

Brazil’s crop agency Conab has lowered its 2025/26 soybean production forecast by about 550,000 metric tons, bringing it to 177.12 million tons. Despite the downward revision, the volume could still set a new record if current projections are confirmed. The adjustment comes after irregular rainfall in several regions in November forced some farmers to replant their fields.

Rainfall normalized across most of the country in the second half of November, allowing producers to accelerate planting. According to Conab, around 90% of soybean areas had been sown by early December, a pace comparable to the average of previous years. Planting has already been completed in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest agricultural state, as well as in many other regions.

However, dry conditions continue to affect soybean development in Rio Grande do Sul, a key oilseed-producing state in southern Brazil. The lack of precipitation there poses significant risks to local yields and potentially to national output.

For the 2025/26 season, Brazilian farmers are expected to plant 48.9 million hectares with soybeans, an increase of 3.4% from last year. The expansion underscores producers’ efforts to boost capacity amid strong global demand.

Tags: soybean, crop forecast, Brazil