Soybean prices in Ukraine remain under pressure due to declining export demand

Improved weather conditions in Argentina and dry weather in Brazil have reduced speculative pressure on the soybean market, leading to a sharp drop in export demand for Ukrainian soybeans.

 Price Dynamics in Ukraine

• GMO soybeans: Export prices dropped by $2-5/t over the week to $385-388/t (18,000–18,200 UAH/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports. The decline is driven by a reduction in the number of exporters and weak competition amid growing supply.
• Non-GMO soybeans: On the contrary, prices rose by $5-10/t to $420-425/t (19,800–20,200 UAH/t) due to a shortage of supply from farmers.

Processors maintain purchasing prices at:

• GMO soybeans – 17,500-18,000 UAH/t
• Non-GMO soybeans – 19,000-19,200 UAH/t
  This is due to challenges in exporting soybean meal and cake, while domestic demand does not generate enough sales to increase processing volumes.

Export and Processing Trends

• Soybean exports in January fell by 38% to 223,000 tons, the lowest monthly figure since the beginning of the season. Total exports from September to January reached 2 million tons out of the projected 3.5 million tons.
• Processing in January increased by 4% (to 260,000 tons) due to large processors reducing sunflower seed processing. However, in February, margins are declining, which may slow down processing rates.
• Record processing levels: Over the first 5 months of the 2024/25 MY, 1.1 million tons of soybeans were processed (+48% compared to the same period last season).

Global Market Pressure Factors

• Chicago: March soybean futures fell by 2% over the past four sessions to $376.6/t (-2% for the month) due to increased supplies from Brazil.
• Brazil: According to Conab, as of February 23, 36.4% of soybeans have been harvested (out of the projected 47.4 million hectares), while second-crop corn planting has reached 53.6%. In Mato Grosso, harvesting is still delayed due to rainfall, but overall dry weather will help speed up soybean harvesting.
• Brazil’s exports: In February, soybean exports are expected to reach 9.3 million tons, with even higher shipments projected for March, already driving up freight rates from South America.

Forecasts and Expectations
Today, the USDA Outlook Forum will present the first estimates for soybean and corn planting in the U.S. for 2025. According to a Bloomberg survey, soybean acreage in the U.S. is expected to be 84.4 million acres, which is 2.7 million acres less than last year, due to increased corn planting.

If soybean acreage does not decline, it will put further pressure on prices. However, a reduction in planting could support price levels.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean