Soybean prices are expected to weaken in Asia amid trade uncertainty between the US and China

Rabobank’s latest Outlook 2026: The Grain Gambit Strains, but Policy Will Sustain notes that ongoing uncertainty in the US-China trade relationship continues to weigh on the global soybean market.

While the Trump-Xi summit on October 31 concluded with a limited trade agreement, the document stipulates that China will purchase 12 million tonnes of US soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 million tonnes annually from 2026 to 2028.

However, Rabobank warns that the agreement lacks enforcement mechanisms, and that ongoing tariffs could hinder commercial supplies. This means that China’s purchases will likely be driven by government agencies rather than the market.

With US exports projected to decline and ending stocks rising to a six-year high, the bank estimates soybean prices will come under pressure.

For Asian feed buyers, particularly in Southeast Asia, this promises short-term price relief, although volatility will remain due to expanding global inventories and ongoing trade risks.

Tags: soybean, USA, China