Soybean price growth in Ukraine halted due to lower export demand
The completion of soybean harvest in Brazil and Argentina increased the supply on the world market, which led to a decrease in export demand for Ukrainian soybeans and soybean meal and cake.
Traders have completed the program of purchasing soybeans in ports, so prices remain at the level of 400-415 $/t or 18500-19000 UAH/t for soybeans with GMOs with delivery to the ports of the black sea and 460-465 $/t for soybeans without GMOs with delivery to the ports of the Danube.
Processors buy GMO soybeans at 17500-18300 UAH/t and non-GMO soybeans at 19200-19500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, but will soon start to lower prices due to problems with the export of meal and cake, as these products are now actively supplied to Europe from South America. Therefore, farmers should speed up the sale of soybean stocks.
As a reminder, farmers in Argentina and Brazil held back sales in anticipation of rising soybean prices, so they will soon intensify sales, which will be during the rapeseed harvesting period and at the same time increase the supply of oilseeds on the market.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Argentina, as of May 1, local farmers sold 31% of the future soybean crop, which is estimated at 49.7 mln tonnes. This is the lowest sales figure for the period since 2014/15 MY. As of May 15, soybeans were harvested on 61% of the country’s area, which is lower than last year’s pace due to heavy rains in April.
On the Chicago stock exchange, the July soybean futures yesterday fell 0.6% to 455,3 $/t (+4.8% for the month), and November – 0.2% to 446 $/t (+3.5%) amid declining export sales of soybeans, meal and oil from the United States.
Freight operators have lowered the forecast of soybean exports from Brazil in may from 14.13 to 13.83 million tons, which is 4% lower than in may 2023, but still exceeds the record monthly soybean exports from the United States.
In 2023/24 MG (as of May 16), the United States exported 39.75 million tons of soybeans, which is 17.8% lower than last year. The slow pace of soybean sales will not allow to boost exports in the coming months.
IGC experts in the May report raised the forecast of global soybean production in 2024/25 MY by 1 mln tonnes to 414 mln tonnes, and the forecast of ending stocks by 3 mln tonnes to 78 mln tonnes (due to the adjustment of the beginning stocks), while the consumption estimate was left unchanged.
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