Soybean oil quotes fall, but stable palm oil prices and high sunflower oil prices will support markets

Global vegetable oil prices have stabilized amid a seasonal increase in supply, but traders await accurate harvest data and demand forecasts.

The negotiations between the US and China, which took place on September 14-17, did not affect the prospects for exports of American agricultural products to China, so December soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday fell by 2.7% to $1,140/t (+1.6% for the week, -2.9% for the month) under the additional pressure of the US Administration’s uncertain policy regarding biodiesel production quotas for 2026-27.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday released a proposal to redistribute biofuel blending obligations among large refineries canceled under the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program, offering two main options: 50% and 100%, so uncertainty about domestic U.S. demand remains.

During the week, soybean oil prices in Brazil increased by $10-15/t to $1,140-1,150/t FOB, and in China on the Dalian exchange by $5-10/t to $1,185-1,190/t against the backdrop of a seasonal reduction in soybean supplies from Brazil and a lack of supplies from the US to China.

October palm oil futures on the Bursa exchange in Malaysia have been trading at a stable level of 4,475 ringgit/t or $1,068/t for 4 weeks, as export rates in the first half of September remain low and are only 2.6% higher than the corresponding figure in August.

Sunflower oil prices in India remain at $1,275-1,285/t C&F, while China has reduced demand prices under pressure from increased supply from Kazakhstan, where prices have fallen to $1,130-1,150/t at the border.

In Ukraine, demand prices for sunflower oil remain at a high level of $1,170-1,190/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, although the number of offers is increasing, and prices for Russian oil have decreased to $1,180-1,190/t FOB.

In August, sunflower oil became the most expensive on the vegetable oil market, overtaking competing palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils in price amid strong demand from India.

According to the Edible Oils Association of India (SEA), India in August increased palm oil imports by 15.76% to the highest level since July 2024 of 990.5 thousand tons due to competitive pricing compared to soybean oil, and sunflower oil by 28.53% to a 7-month high of 257 thousand tons, while soybean oil imports decreased by 25.27% to a 4-month low of 367.9 thousand tons.

Sunflower yield indicators in southern Ukraine, Russia, and the EU were very low at the start of the harvest, so production forecasts are decreasing, although USDA experts in the September report almost did not change the world balance for vegetable oils.

Tags: soybean oil, prices, palm oil