Soybean harvest in Ukraine may start with a delay due to heavy rainfall and flooding of fields

In the Ukrainian soybean market, most of the old harvest has already been sold, and only a few batches remain on the market. However, adverse weather conditions and delays in crop development may significantly delay the start of the harvesting campaign. This is reported by analysts of the PUSK agricultural cooperative, founded within the VAR.

“Regarding the new harvest, prices remain at $390–395/t for GMO soybeans and $420–425/t for non-GMO. At the same time, there are a number of risks: some soybeans were sown late, and weather conditions — in particular, frosts — caused stress in plants. In many regions, there is a lag in vegetation.

The risks are further complicated by excessive precipitation, which led to flooding of some fields, especially in the central and western regions. It is expected that the new crop of soybeans will begin to enter the market in September, but there is a high probability that this will not happen on time. Weather factors may shift the start of the harvesting campaign to at least mid-September,” the PUSK believes.

Taking into account the limited stocks of old soybeans, uncertainty about the start of the new crop harvest, and the projected reduction in the gross harvest, the market is approaching a critical point in the balance of supply and demand. This creates conditions for an increase in oilseed prices.

“Flawed statistics also complicate forecasts in the soybean market — not all individual farms are taken into account in official reports, which distorts estimates of sown areas and oilseed yields,” analysts add.

Tags: Ukraine, soybean, harvesting