SOYBEANS
Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade continued to rise. The May contract reached 1,173.6 cents per bushel (+2.0 cents). Prices for Brazilian soybeans for May delivery increased to $434 per tonne on an FOB Santos basis (+$3).
A key development was the postponement of U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to China to May 14–15. The meeting had originally been scheduled for late March but was delayed due to the need for the president to remain in Washington amid the war with Iran. The postponement keeps hopes alive for potential trade agreements between the world’s two largest economies.
Weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 25 million bushels, exceeding analysts’ expectations. Sales to China reached 263,000 tonnes, of which 260,000 tonnes were switched from unknown destinations. Total commitments since the start of the season stand at 11.24 million tonnes, with another 1.8 million tonnes still listed as unknown destinations.
Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult raised its soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 184.7 million tonnes, up 6.7% from the previous season. The planted area is expected to increase to 49.1 million hectares.
SOYBEAN OIL
Soybean oil led gains among vegetable oils. On the CBOT, the May contract rose to 68.02 cents per pound (+0.92 cents), reaching a two-week high.
The main driver is ожидание (expectations) of updated U.S. biofuel blending mandates, set to be announced on March 27. The projected range for renewable diesel blending is 5.3–5.6 billion gallons per year, significantly above the 2025 level of 3.35 billion gallons.
Managed funds are estimated to hold a record net long position in soybean oil of 146,000 contracts. Spot crush margins increased to $2.83 per bushel, while the share of soybean oil in the crush value recovered to 51.4%.
SOYBEAN MEAL
Soybean meal prices rebounded after hitting weekly lows. The May contract on the CBOT rose to $322.1 per short ton (+$2.3).
Weekly export sales reached 508,000 tonnes, significantly exceeding market expectations. Total commitments since the start of the season reached 12.9 million tonnes, up 14% year-on-year compared to the USDA forecast of 6%.
PALM OIL
Palm oil on Bursa Malaysia showed strong growth. The June contract rose to 4,585 ringgit per tonne (+89 ringgit, +1.98%), recovering losses from previous sessions.
Export data from Indonesia showed a 4.42% increase in February to 2.376 million tonnes. Sales to China rose by 35% to 439,000 tonnes, offsetting a 20% decline in shipments to India to 650,600 tonnes.
The positive trend was also supported by a weaker ringgit against the U.S. dollar, making Malaysian palm oil more attractive for foreign buyers.
RAPESEED
Rapeseed prices continued to rise on both European and Canadian exchanges. On Euronext MATIF, the May contract reached €502.25 per tonne (+€3.0). On ICE Canada, the May contract rose to CAD 729.40 per tonne (+CAD 2.20).
According to Intercereales, French farmers are planning to shift from corn to sunflower planting. Corn requires more fertilizers and energy, and rising input costs amid Middle East tensions are making sunflower a more attractive crop.
SUNFLOWER OIL
Russia’s sunflower oil export index SOEXP, calculated by the National Commodity Exchange, rose to $1,296.8 per tonne (+$3.4).
A key supportive factor is the expected sharp decline in sunflower oil production in Ukraine. According to the Ukroliaprom association, sunflower yields this season are projected at 1.88 tonnes per hectare, the lowest level in the past 10 years. Total production is estimated at 9.8 million tonnes, down 18.3% year-on-year.
Sunflower oil production in Ukraine is expected to decrease by 10% to 4.6 million tonnes, while exports are projected to fall by 6.4% to 4.4 million tonnes. Reduced supply from Ukraine, a key global player, is supporting prices and boosting demand for Russian oil.
Structural shifts in European planting toward sunflower are also providing long-term market support, particularly as French farmers switch away from corn due to higher input costs.
WHEAT
Wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade showed strong gains. The May contract for soft red winter wheat rose to 605.0 cents per bushel (+7.4 cents), while hard red winter wheat increased to 626.6 cents (+9.0 cents). On Euronext MATIF, the May contract reached €205.25 per tonne (+€1.25).
The main driver remains drought conditions in the U.S. Great Plains. According to monitoring data, the share of winter wheat affected by drought increased to 57%, the highest level in 52 weeks. Long-term forecasts indicate limited rainfall in the coming weeks.
Additional support came from news of Algerian purchases. The state grain agency bought several hundred thousand tonnes of milling wheat at around $272 per tonne on a C&F basis. Exact volumes and prices have not been officially disclosed but were confirmed by traders.
Weekly U.S. wheat export sales for the week ending March 19 totaled 15 million bushels, in line with market expectations. Total commitments since the start of the season reached 885 million bushels, up 15% year-on-year.
CORN
The corn market showed mixed dynamics. On the CBOT, the May contract edged slightly lower to 467.0 cents per bushel (-0.2 cents), while on Euronext MATIF, the June contract rose to €208.75 per tonne (+€0.25).
Support came from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s decision to allow the sale of E15 gasoline during the summer months. The measure will be in effect from May 1 to May 20 and aims to offset rising fuel prices. U.S. ethanol production recovered to 328 million gallons per week, up 6% year-on-year.
Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought 65,000 tonnes of feed corn, which traders expect to be sourced from the United States. The deal was concluded at a premium of 199.95 cents per bushel over the September futures contract.
In Brazil, Agroconsult lowered its forecast for the second corn crop (safrinha) by 7.6% to 114.5 million tonnes. Production potential will largely depend on weather conditions in April, with forecasts remaining uncertain.
A limiting factor remains record-high U.S. corn stocks. Analysts estimate inventories as of March 1 at 9.036 billion bushels, up 10.9% year-on-year and the highest level since records began in 1927.
