Soybean futures on the CBOT hit a two-month high amid expectations of improved US-China relations

Soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reached a two-month high on Thursday, according to analysts, amid hopes that a potential thaw in U.S. trade relations with the world’s largest soybean buyer, China, could spur new purchases of the oilseed.

March soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed up 13.5 cents, or 1.2%, at $11.37 per bushel after reaching $11.41 per bushel, the contract’s highest price since December 2.

On the CBOT, March soybean meal futures rose $4.90, or 1.6%, to $307.90 per short ton, while March soybean oil futures rose 0.49 cents, or 0.9%, to 57.54 cents per pound.

Most CBOT soybean oil futures are setting lifetime highs.

A report in the South China Morning Post claimed that US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could extend the trade truce between their countries for up to a year at their meeting in early April.

This report comes after Trump announced last week that China had increased its soybean purchase target from the US as part of the trade truce agreed upon in late October.

Analysts note that, given the changing dynamics of US-China relations, traders are cautious about shorting soybeans ahead of the long weekend in the US.

Traders shrugged off pressure from rising soybean crop forecasts in Brazil, the world’s largest soybean supplier.

Brazil’s agricultural agency, Conab, raised its soybean harvest estimate to a record 177.98 million metric tons, up from January’s forecast of 176.12 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) this week raised its Brazilian harvest forecast to 180 million tons.

Analysts and producers said Paraguay is on track for a record soybean harvest of over 10 million tons.

Weekly soybean export data from the US came in below market expectations. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported net sales of 281,800 metric tons of previous-year soybeans for the week ending February 5, below market expectations of 300,000 to 1,100,000 metric tons and the lowest figure for the 2025/26 marketing year, which began September 1.

Separately, in accordance with its daily reporting rules, USDA confirmed the private sale of 108,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to Egypt.

Mar 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.37 1/4, up 13 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $10.72 1/2, up 13 1/4 cents,

May 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.52 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents,

Jul 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.63 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents

Traders reported that benchmark rates for soybeans shipped by barge to terminals in the US Gulf of Mexico strengthened on Thursday amid expectations that the largest importer, China, will increase its late-season purchases of US soybeans despite ample supplies from Brazil.

Seasonal soybean export volumes have slowed as Brazil, a rival exporter, ramps up its harvest. Brazilian soybeans are offered at significantly lower prices than US soybeans.

The US Department of Agriculture reported that net export sales of US soybeans for the week ending February 5 fell to 283,098 metric tons, below market forecasts and the lowest since early June.

However, on Thursday, the USDA reported the sale of another 105,000 metric tons of US soybeans to Egypt.

Prices for soybean barges loaded CIF Gulf in February and March rose one cent to 102 cents compared with March CBOT futures. Prices for spring shipments rose two cents.

FOB soybean export premiums in February and March remained unchanged at approximately 130 cents compared with March futures.

Tags: prices, soybean