South Africa’s corn production poised to grow

Corn production in South Africa is positioned for continued growth in marketing year 2025-26 supported by stable planting area, higher anticipated yields and a slight shift to yellow corn two years after a drought-reduced crop, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Production is projected by the FAS to reach 16 million tonnes in 2025-26, up 4% from 15.4 million tonnes in 2024-25 and significant improvement from 13.4 million tonnes in 2023-24. Corn planting area will remain stable at 3 million hectares in 2025-26, spanning May 2026 to April 2027, due to declining corn prices.

South Africa consumes both white and yellow corn, each serving distinct purposes for the country of nearly 65 million people.

White corn, primarily processed into maize meal, is the staple grain for human consumption due to its affordability as a carbohydrate source, the FAS noted. Yellow corn is predominantly used in the animal feed sector, where it serves as the primary ingredient in feed rations, particularly for the broiler industry.

The FAS made slight upward adjustments to its previous estimates for corn demand in 2024-25 and 2025-26, revising them to 14 million tonnes and 14.2 million tonnes, respectively. These adjustments reflect a modest growth rate compared to the final consumption figures for 2023-24. South Africa’s annual population growth is estimated at 1.3%, while economic growth remains sluggish, the FAS said.

Corn exports for 2024-25 are expected to be 1.5 million tonnes while FAS projects South Africa’s corn exports to increase by 13% in 2025-26, reaching 1.7 million tonnes, supported by the anticipated growth in production.

“Improved harvests in neighboring countries, particularly Zimbabwe and Zambia, are expected to reduce regional demand for South Africa’s corn exports, especially white corn,” the FAS said. “However, South Africa has resumed yellow corn exports to Asian markets, including Vietnam and South Korea, which remain profitable destinations for South African corn.”

Year-end stock levels are forecast to continue growing in 2025-26, reaching 1.2 million tonnes, which is sufficient to cover nearly six weeks of commercial use. In 2024-25, corn stocks are expected to recover significantly from the unusually low levels of 2023-24, growing by over 60% to 1.1 million tonnes.

The depletion of stocks during 2023-24 underscored the importance of reliable supply chains and the need for consistent production to meet both domestic and regional demand, the FAS said. South Africa’s grain and oilseed storage capacity exceeds 20 million tonnes, with stocks primarily managed by producer-owned agribusinesses (formerly cooperatives), traders and processors.

“Unlike many other southern African nations, the South African government exercises minimal intervention in the domestic corn market,” the FAS said. “As a result, the government does not maintain strategic corn reserves or impose regulatory requirements for specific stock levels. This market-driven approach highlights the importance of private sector efficiency in managing supply chains and ensuring food security.”

Tags: corn, South Africa, crop forecast