South African wheat farmers faced a tough season, but no supply shortages loom

South African wheat farmers endured a challenging 2025-26 season. Excessive rainfall and widespread snail infestations in the Western Cape — which accounts for over half of the country’s wheat output — forced many growers to replant under already elevated input costs for fertilisers, fuel, and agrochemicals. These difficulties, combined with persistently low global wheat prices, have placed significant financial strain on producers.

Despite the adverse conditions, the 2025-26 winter wheat harvest is estimated at around 1.93 million tonnes — roughly in line with the previous season. Over the first 20 weeks of the marketing year, farmers have already delivered approximately 1.71 million tonnes to commercial silos, representing 89% of the projected total. Thanks to stronger opening stocks carried over from the prior season, South Africa is expected to import about 1.75 million tonnes in 2025-26, a modest 5% reduction compared with the previous marketing year.

Import requirements should pose no major difficulties given the exceptionally ample global wheat supplies. The International Grains Council forecasts a record world wheat crop of 830 million tonnes for 2025-26, up 4% from the previous season, driven by large harvests in the EU, Russia, the United States, Canada, Australia, Ukraine, China, India, Argentina, Kazakhstan, and others. This abundant supply continues to keep international prices under pressure, facilitating smooth import flows for net importers like South Africa.

Lower global wheat prices benefit consumers by helping moderate food-price inflation in a country that imports roughly half of its annual consumption. However, the same price environment — together with rising production costs — squeezes farmer profitability and has renewed calls within the industry for higher import tariffs to provide better protection for domestic growers.

In summary, South Africa enjoys comfortable wheat availability from both domestic production and global markets, ensuring stable and reasonably priced supplies for consumers. At the same time, ongoing cost pressures and low prices highlight the need to carefully refine the existing import-tariff mechanism to better balance the interests of farmers and the broader population.

Tags: wheat, South Africa, crop forecast